The times are far from short, but what is certain is that yesterday, Tuesday 17 February, with the approval of the merger by incorporation and delisting of Mediobanca, the board of directors of Monte dei Paschi laid the foundations for the birth a new banking hub. This is the long-awaited "third pole" desired by the government? The answer remains pending: both because, to know the details of the project, it will be necessary to wait for the presentation of the new business plan of Rocca Salimbeni scheduled for February 27th, both because Unicredit or Banco Bpm (with Crédit Agricole on the sidelines) could soon strike a new blow, reigniting the Italian banking game.
MPS-Mediobanca: A new banking hub is born
Meanwhile, based on what we know, the the new hub will have two distinct but integrated souls between them: on one side MPS which will directly manage the commercial activity, on the other Piazzetta Cuccia, delisted, which will continue to operate under the same name, under the guidance of the CEO Alessandro Melzi d'Eril and the president Vittorio Grilli, maintaining the control over private banking and investment banking and the direct control of 13,2% of Generali. And it might not end here, given that the number one of the Sienese bank, Luigi Lovaglio, has already said he is willing to evaluate new consolidation opportunities in Italy.
The Generali knot
Quotas in hand, through Mediobanca, MPS becomes Generali's largest single shareholder. Anyone wishing to have a say in the country's largest financial institution will therefore have to knock on the door of the Sienese bank. Close behind are Delfin, with 10% of the capital, and Caltagirone, with 6,28%. They are followed by Edizione (4,8%), Unicredit (2%), and Fondazione CRT (1,9%). The first three, incidentally, are also shareholders of Monte dei Paschi: Delfin with 17,5%, Caltagirone with just over 11%, and Edizione with just under 3%.
And it doesn't end there. MPS currently has an active partnership with Axa which will expire in 2027. It is therefore difficult not to think about the new opportunities that could open up with the Lion group. Not to mention that, as the Courier, in Mediobanca today there is a committee, provided for by art. 18 of the statute, for the appointment of corporate bodies “in the meetings of listed companies in which the participation is equal toat least 10% of capital”. In other words, the rule now also concerns the appointments in General, Mediobanca has always played a key role in this. Therefore, a compromise must be found between the will of MPS, which will most likely continue to be led by Luigi Lovaglio, and that of the other significant shareholders. Once this is achieved, the future of Generali will truly be clear, although the role of the market and international funds must always be considered.
Analysts promote the new MPS-Mediobanca hub
Meantime the market celebrates the announcement arrived yesterday from Siena: waiting to leave Piazza Affari after 70 years of presence, Mediobanca stock is rallying (+7% to 19,43), while MPS shares rose more than 2% to 8,599 euros. Generali also rose above par (+0,1% to 35,72 euros).
For Intermonte, "Mediobanca's delisting was expected and is in line with expectations. The operation increases visibility on the announced synergies of 700 million of euros, with full use of the tax benefits”.
“Based on current market prices, we estimate that the merger will have a positive impact on the MPS Cet1 equal to 50-60 basis points (from an estimated 15,5% in 2026 to 16,1%), with negligible dilution of earnings per share,” says Deutsche Bank, which believes that full control of Mediobanca should generate “significant benefits”. Furthermore, according to analysts, "the transaction allows for a simplification of the group's structure, strengthening strategic agility, and creating a closer link between Private Banking/Investment Banking performance and overall profitability."
Equita expressed a similar opinion, according to which the operation "will allow to mitigate the risk of integration and strengthen the capital structure, with a Cet1 ratio greater than 16,5%”. Furthermore, with Mediobanca 100% integrated, analysts underline, “Mps should approach a adjusted net profit of 3 billion euros by 2028".
