The government built the Budget law for 2026 taking into account the budgetary constraints, with the consequence of "a very small public finance manoeuvre, with numerous interventions against which, however, the spending commitments are modest". This is what we read in a note on the economic situation di Ref Searches.
Ref on the budget: "Very small, modest spending commitments. Taxes and low wages weigh on families."
"In general," it is noted, "this budget law is consistent with the policies of previous years: it continues to shift the focus of policies towards investment, which is clearly important if it is to reduce the problems linked to the deterioration of our economy's infrastructure, and it maintains the focus on the objectives of containing the balance, in line with European objectives."
At the same time, it adds, "the constraints on balances and the high levels of capital expenditure will continue to put pressure on other items of the public budget: High tax pressure and containment of social spending weigh on families, limiting income growth, in a context in which real wages are still below pre-pandemic levels”.
Ref Scenario: Risks from Tariffs and Conflicts
Duties and conflicts are "destabilizing" the system of international relations. Meanwhile, the Italian GDP It remains at "slightly positive" levels, but the greatest risks hang over exports. Ref Ricerche's economic outlook estimates GDP growth at 0,5% in both 2025 and 2026, and at 0,9% in 2027.
"The international economic landscape is changing rapidly. Tariff wars and geopolitical problems are destabilizing the system of international economic relations. In the coming months, we will see the consequences on investment trends and world trade," it reads.For Europe, tariffs and the stronger euro exchange rate are weighing on the competitive position of industry.On the positive side, the decline in energy commodity prices leads to lower inflation and supports the decline in interest rates." In this context, European fiscal policies will be overall neutral: the German one will be expansionary and the Italian one will remain restrictive. However, it is observed, "if we take into account the probable increase in defense spending, which will not be included in the next budget law, the deficit will stabilize just below the 3 percent threshold. This is enough to make the downward adjustment in investments more gradual and keep GDP growth at a slightly positive pace. This scenario is therefore strongly dependent on the growth of public works.
Given the postponements of some expenses of the Pnrr"A sharp reduction in public investment will be avoided in 2027. However, the brake on current spending remains, and tax pressure remains high, delaying the recovery in consumption. The greatest risks hang over exports. The outlook for industry is highly uncertain," the report notes.
