Calm only apparent this morning on the markets. Yesterday evening, China cut by half a percentage point the minimum level of liquidity that banks are required to hold as reserves, thus freeing up about 110 billion dollars to support the economy, which is under pressure from the new moves of the United States. The White House has in fact announced a squeeze on Chinese investments in the US in technology, from robotics to aerospace and energy, or rather the sectors involved in the "China 2020" plan wanted by Xi Jingping to wrest technological leadership from the US. A climate of high tension, therefore, which explains the prudence of the price lists, which have only partially reacted to the "gift" of the monetary authorities of the Dragon.
PRICE LISTS WEAK IN ASIA, THE TURKISH LIRA SPLASHES
The Japanese Stock Exchange (-0,3%) is starting to close down, the yen rises to 109,5 against the dollar. The Chinese currency, the yuan, slipped to a five-and-a-half-month low (at 6,53 against the US currency). The attempt to rebound by the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets +0,1% which recorded a drop of 3,7% last week. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 0,3%, falling to its lowest since December.
The euro/dollar exchange rate moved little at 1,1656. At the heart of the currency markets is the rebound of the Turkish lira (+2,2% to 4,5791 against the dollar) after President Erdogan's affirmation in the elections: the country is also on its way to formally becoming a presidential republic. First emergency, the economy: inflation reached 11% against a current account deficit equal to 6,4% of GDP.
THE BRENT AT $74 AFTER SATURDAY'S DEAL
The oil market was agitated following the agreement between producers signed on Saturday in Vienna: after an initial surge in prices, Brent fell this morning to 74,27 dollars (-1,7%) following the announcement of an increase of production by one million barrels compared to the cuts 18 months ago (-1,8 million barrels) which favored the increase in prices from 27 dollars in 2016 to an average of 75 million. Saudi Arabia is ready to take charge of the increase in production, even taking the shares of the OPEC countries which are currently unable to pump more. Only a slight drop, -0,5%, for WTI oil, around 68 dollars. The decision taken at the instigation of Saudi Arabia and Russia only partially compensates for the drop in production in Venezuela, Libya and Angola, around 2,8 million barrels, to the satisfaction of Iran, which is against the increase.
IMMIGRATION AND DUTIES ON CARS, TWO MORTGAGES ON THE EU
Immigration, duties, tensions on currencies and inflation. The weekend delivers numerous and heavy mortgages to the financial markets, which fear repeating the recent disappointing performance: Piazza Affari reopens its doors after a 1,7% loss in the last five sessions. Frankfurt did worse (-3,7%). Midway in New York, the Dow Jones index (-2%), the most sensitive to trade trends. Since January, the lists have left a total of 7.200 billion of stock market value on the head.
TODAY THE IFO INDEX, TOMORROW AUCTION CTZ
The spread between Btp and Bund restarts from 230 points. Treasury auctions resume tomorrow with the offer of 3 billion Ctz and Btpei.
In particular, the Eurozone is thus starting the meeting of the European Council next Thursday and Friday which will have the hottest dossiers on its agenda: migration, security and defense as well as the economic and financial reforms of the Eurozone starting from the establishment of the Fund European monetary system, dear to Germany, welcomed with great coldness by Italy.
This morning's publication of the German Ifo index, relating to business confidence, could confirm (and amplify) the pessimism of the largest economy in the Eurozone.
THE NEW YORK TIMES: "ITALY EXPORTS UNCERTAINTY"
Meanwhile, today, the United Kingdom celebrates the second anniversary of the "catastrophic" (according to The Economist) choice of Brexit. The negotiation will be another of the topics of the European Council: the polls attribute a slight majority to the Remains.
But the mood today will be worsened above all by the threat of a 20% increase in American tariffs on cars, already anticipated by Donald Trump in response to the European measures that came into force last week. EU Commissioner Jurji Katainen has already commented that "the EU will have no choice but to react".
The New York Times on Sunday dedicated a long article to the worsening of the Italian economy, already in a timid recovery: “The increase in oil prices, the steel duties and the crisis of confidence in politics have meant that the Bel Paese today you export above all uncertainty”.
STORM IN THE AIR IN TELECOM. THURSDAY THE NEW CDP MANAGERS
In Piazza Affari, the awaited event will take center stage today Telecom Italia board of directors. A bitter confrontation is looming between some of the directors and the CEO Amos Genish who accused last week that "there are directors who interfere with the work of management, spread false conjectures that jeopardize the company's ability to achieve goals". The words come a few weeks after the approval of the quarterly, scheduled for July 24, and a few months after the tender for the 5th G in September. But, above all, it falls in a delicate moment for the balance of the market: the exit of Claudio Costamagna from the Cdp weakens the axis with Elliott Management, a forthcoming counter-offensive by Vivendi cannot be ruled out.
The meeting of the CDP will also be held during the week, set for Thursday on first call and Friday on second call.
The agenda of Piazza Affari today provides for the distribution of the Acsm-Agam dividend (0,05 euro).
USA, THE REVISION OF THE GDP COMES. ACCOUNTS FOR NIKE AND CARNIVAL
In the USA, the most important macro data will concern inflation and the trend of GDP in the first quarter.
On Wall Street, pay attention to the accounts of Nike and the cruise leader Carnival.
