Intesa Sanpaolo in the new three-year industrial plan moves under the banner of strong growth and of ahigh profitability. By 2029 the revenues are expected at 30,7 billion, with a Net income over 11,5 billion and costs under control at 11,3 billion, while the institute led by Charles Messina intends to distribute approximately 50 billion of euros to the shareholders between the 2025 and the 2029.
In the period 2026-2029 the payout ratio is set at 95% for each financial year, with a composition that includes the 75% in cash dividends and 20% buybackAny further distributions will be evaluated year by year starting from 2027, maintaining in any case a Cet 1 above 12,5%.
The plan confirms a business model a low capital absorption, oriented to commission income, supported by a low risk profileThe sustainability of this policy rests on expected growing profitability.Net income is expected to progressively rise to over 11,5 billion in 2029, with a Roe at 22% and a Red al 27%.
Cost and risk control
On the front of Costs, Intesa Sanpaolo aims for a structural reduction This was made possible by the technological investments already made. Operating costs are expected to decrease by €0,2 billion in 2029 compared to 2025, with a cost/income ratio improvement of 5,4 percentage points to 36,8%.
I revenues are expected to grow in line with nominal GDP, with a average annual rate of 3% in net operating income, driven mainly by commissions and the increase in customer financial assets, expected to reach approximately €1.700 trillion in 2029.
Il cost of risk It is estimated between 25 and 30 basis points per year over the period 2026-2029, with a non-performing loan ratio of less than 1% of total loans net of write-downs, consistent with the bank's "zero NPL" status. Overall, the group estimates value creation of approximately €500 billion for all stakeholders over the four-year period. investments for 5,1 billion they focus mainly on technology and growth.
The plan calls for growth in customers (+2,5 million), loans (+46 billion), new credit (+76 billion), financial assets (+200 billion), managed assets (+101 billion), and non-life insurance premiums (+0,7 billion). The advisory network will grow by approximately 3.700 people, to 22.250.
Profit to grow by 7,6% in 2025
Meanwhile, the bank has closed thel 2025 with theNet income at 9,3 billion euros, up 7,6% compared to 8,7 billion in 2024, higher than the objectives of the 2022-2025 industrial plan. In the fourth quarter, the outcome net is equal to 1,7 billion, compared to 1,5 billion in the same period of 2024.
Il outcome operating management grew by 1,5% in 2025 compared to 2024, with operating income Net income increased by 0,6%, driven by commissions, insurance business, and the results of fair value transactions, despite the decline in net interest income. Operating expenses decreased by 0,6%, confirming the balance between revenues and expenses.
Credit quality remains high, with suffering almost eliminated and a non-performing loan ratio of 0,8% according to the EBA methodology. The cost of risk stood at 41 basis points, reduced to 26 basis points without extraordinary write-downs, while the Russian subsidiary's loans are negligible. Capitalization is solid: the CET1 ratio is 13,9%, up from the previous year, and remains at 13,2% after deducting dividends and buybacks, well above regulatory requirements.
Messina: We will expand abroad, but without acquisitions. This is the right time.
Intesa Sanpaolo aims for'abroad, but “there is no need to resort to bank acquisitions and pay goodwill to competitors, we already have our branches” he said Charles Messina during the call with the financial community.
In the new plan Messina focuses on the "growth of our International Banks, leveraging the successful business model in Italy” and achieving “many more synergies with the other divisions than in the past also thanks to isytech” continued the manager. The launch of isywealth Europe leverages "our strengths, in particular on the digital and on financial advisors – he added – This is a really important project for us”. “The business plan includes approximately 200 million euros of investments e no revenue: it's an opportunity for the group in the medium term".
Il project includes the development of integrated hubs in the main European countries where Intesa Sanpaolo is present (France, Germany, Spain) to serve different customer segments, leveraging group synergies through a mix of innovative and traditional channels. It is divided into two phases and “I will personally supervise the first part,” he explained.We will transform our branches, which are now dedicated exclusively to corporate services, with branches that can operate in the retail and private sectors, to achieve a digital and holistic offering."
In 2026 - 2027 there will be “the set-up and market testing of the product offering, also leveraging relationships and developing synergies with existing customers, the progressive development of consultant networks financial/Private Bankers through assumptions or possible selected acquisitions, and the extension of strategic partnerships existing in the field Wealth Management with global leaders like BlackRock.”
Starting from 2027 there will be “the launch of a complete range of products (banking, WM, non-motor insurance). A central element of the Business Plan is the expansion of capacity Advisory. A
detailed roadmap includes the growth of consultancy networks in Italy and abroad, including the expansion of the Global Advisors network within the Territorial Bank Division, destined to become the third financial consultancy network in Italy, while the unit Fideuram of the Group will remain the market leader. Furthermore, a “Fideuram” style network will be created in the International Banks Division.
“My vision is that now is the right time to accelerate outside Italy and today we consider the international division as fully integrated into the group – explained Messina – Until the previous plan they were not really part of Intesa, but a separate entity, while now there is full integration thanks also to digital and allwealth management approach".
We will recruit over 1.000 advisors. Possible acquisitions of financial advisor networks or insurance agents.
“Abroad we want recruit financial advisors in the Fideuram style and we have a significant plan to recruit over 1000 people “We will have an Intesa Sanpaolo with a comprehensive offering in all the countries where we operate.” “I don't think you necessarily have to acquire a bank in the Eurozone to enter a new market, especially if, like us, you have a branch, which we still need to expand from corporate to retail and private banking, and having an operating system like isytech, which is advanced and cloud-based, helps us,” the CEO said.
“We want to create a new way to enter a market and we are also working, for example, with our insurance companies "To have all the products ready," he said, "Our goal is to create a project that will allow us to have a strong presence in Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory; this is a clear priority. We don't want to acquire banks, but we could acquire networks of financial advisors or insurance agents."
“The focus of the plan also for growth abroad is on organic growth, leveraging our strengths such as technology, but we cannot exclude acquisitions of financial advisor networks during the plan period. But everything will be clearer in 2027."
Messina: No M&A from others will challenge our leadership in Italy.
“In Italy we are the undisputed leader and any combination with other banks will not change our leadership, given our strong relationships with customers and product factories. Therefore, we remain the leaders by definition and We will attack others by recruiting consultants and private bankers" the CEO continued. "I'm not at all worried about the competition in Italy and I believe it will take a few years to have competitors approaching our size," he added.
At 12:00 PM, Intesa SanPaolo shares were down 0,07% in a FTSE MIB up 0,4%.
A12 o'clock update
