Encouraging signals are finally coming from industrial activity in our country, according to the data released in the analysis of the Italian manufacturing industry sectors published in February by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, which shows a turnover which at current prices remains stable between January and November 2025 (+0,1%) but which returned to growth at constant prices between July and November 2025 (+1.3%, on a trend basis), with the year-end estimated at a level above 1120 billion euros, in line with the highs reached in 2022-23 and higher than pre-Covid (+23% on 2019).
Manufacturing production also marked a turning point in the last months of 2025, with a 1.7% year-on-year growth rate in the July-November period, which, however, did not fully offset the weakness of the first half of the year (-1.1% for the first 11 months as a whole). Other major European manufacturing sectors are also gradually recovering: between July and November, industrial production rose in France (+1.3%) and Spain (+1.4%), and the pace of decline slowed in Germany (-0.7%).
The sectoral picture remains heterogeneous, despite the widespread improvement in activity levels in the second half of 2025. At the top of the ranking for deflated turnover are Electrical engineering (+3.8% trend, 11 months) and Mechanical engineering (+3.1%), which has accelerated sharply since the summer months thanks to investments, boosted by the unblocking of Transition 5.0 incentives. Pharmaceuticals also confirmed its position among the strongest sectors (+3.3%) thanks to the surge in exports (+33.8% in value in the first 10 months of 2025, +34.5% in volume), partly due to the anticipated sales on the American market. Exports also benefited the Food and Beverage sector (+1.5%), along with the resilience of domestic consumption.
Difficulties persist for the fashion system (-2.1%, 11-month deflated turnover), Household Appliances (-5.0%), and especially Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (-9.6%), which, despite showing signs of slowing the pace of decline in turnover and production in the second half of the year, remain the hardest-hit manufacturing sector in the current environment. Confidence indicators are gradually recovering in the most recent surveys, pointing to prospects of a cautious improvement in the manufacturing operating environment.
The domestic market is expected to be the main growth driver for 2026. The contribution of investments is crucial After a turnaround in the second half of 2025, the outlook is expected to strengthen in 2026, thanks to the new incentive package for the purchase of capital goods (tangible and intangible), which includes a return to hyper-depreciation. Confirming this trend, stronger signs of strengthening confidence among capital goods producers are emerging. Producers of consumer goods and intermediate goods, on the other hand, are showing a more modest improvement in sentiment, but still consistent with expectations of a strengthening production recovery in the first half of 2026.
On the international front, the outlook is for overall global growth to remain stable. However, geopolitical risks could weaken trade compared to 2025, when Italy performed well on international markets. Italian exports of manufactured goods grew by 3.8% in the first 10 months of the year (+2.9% in volume) and by 0.8% excluding the extraordinary performance of the Pharmaceuticals sector. The strong performance of exports has allowed the trade balance to remain at high levels (over 90 billion euros in the first 10 months of 2025, excluding energy bills), despite the acceleration in imports (+6.9%), particularly from China (+24.3%), which were also heavily influenced by the Pharmaceuticals data.
Chinese competitive pressures have also affected other European countries: EU27 imports from China grew by 8.7% in the first nine months of 2025 (and by 6.7% excluding pharmaceuticals) with increases widespread across all sectors, including medium-high technology ones such as mechanical engineering. The penetration of Chinese goods does not seem to have undermined Italy's competitiveness so far in terms of market share in the main EU partner countries. Italy maintains solid positions in Germany (with a 5.8% share of German imports from around the world, 9 months to 2025), Spain (8.9%), and France (9.3%), substantially stable compared to 2024.
