Il Italian goldsmith sector it is worth almost half (48%) of the exports of the European Union of 27. A record also confirmed in the first half of 2023 when Italy exported gold jewelery for 4,7 billion dollars, with a growth of 16,4% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Among the outlet markets, there is an important novelty: thanks to a growth of 68%. Switzerland it surpassed the United States, which however showed an increase both in value (5%) and quantity (14%). These are some data contained in the Focus carried out by the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo from which it emerges that the macroeconomic scenario, characterized by a slowdown in Western countries and China, high interest rates and non-negligible inflationary pressures, will probably be unfavorable for most raw materials. However, the energy transition and structural underinvestment will provide quotation support.
Gold sector, demand on the rise: China rebounds, India falls
In recent months, precious metals have followed swings in expectations about monetary policies, bond yields and the relative strength of the US dollar. “We expect these elements to remain the main drivers of the sector also in the coming months", say the experts - from the Studies and Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo.
in the first six months of 2023 the global demand for gold jewellery exceeded 950 tonnes with a more lively dynamic in the 2nd quarter (+3,1%) compared to the first three months of the year, in which it confirmed the 2022 value. Also in the 1st half of the main European exporters showed good dynamics with higher growth percentages for France (23%), Ireland (24%) and Italy stood at 16% also due to more significant increases shown in previous years.
Il Chinese market, also due to the rebound recorded after the farewell to the restrictions due to the Covid pandemic, presents sustained growth (+19%) driven by the recovery of sociality and also by the return to weddings suspended in previous years. “Looking ahead for the rest of the year, this market could find support from the Shenzen fair and from the demand linked to weddings which are concentrated more in the second half of the year, but there are also downside risks linked to the slowing economic context, to the sustained price of gold and to greater prudence in the consumption of discretionary goods,” reads the report.
Instead, it goes down (-12% to 207 tons). question from India, which represents the second largest market for jewelry demand. According to Intesa, the negative impact dictated by the high gold price was partly counterbalanced by the favorable economic context and will be affected in the rest of the year by the progress of the monsoon season.
Finally, it is worth highlighting the growth of Turkish question, which shows a double-digit increase for the fourth consecutive quarter and reaches a value of around 20 tonnes in the first six months, with an increase dictated above all by investment demand. There American question, however, showed a decline of -7%, also the result of a progressive shift in consumption towards services and conditioned by the high price of gold.
The Italian goldsmith districts
“Over the last few months there has been a weakening of global growth due to the braking effect of restrictive monetary policy in Western countries and a less solid post-pandemic rebound in China also due to the worsening of the real estate crisis,” say the scholars, who however underline: "despite this extremely volatile panorama, the Italian gold sector has confirmed its competitiveness and primacy in the European context: in terms of gold jewelery exports, Italy represents 48% of the European total and in 2022 it exceeded the 2019 value by 40%, while France still showed a delay of -12%, and Ireland positioned itself as the third exporting country with approximately 1 billion euros.
For the Italian districts, in the 2nd quarter the study notes a slowdown compared to the January-March period, but all three monitored districts still show growing exports in the April-June period compared to a 1% drop in Italian manufacturing.
Overall, in the first half of the year, the district with the highest growth rate was that of valence (+11,3%), followed by Goldsmith's Arezzo (+5,6%) and, finally, from the Veneto district of Vicenza (+3,5%). Overall the three districts achieved 3,7 billion euros in exports with an increase compared to the previous year of over 222 million (+6,4%), which is confirmed to be higher than the growth in foreign production prices which was equal to +5,6%.
