Novo Nordisk might be able to bypass the issue of anti-obesity drugs, which had recently caused a sharp drop in stocks of the Danish company, with a bet that could come fromthe same drugs Why they could also be used to treat Alzheimer'sThe company is awaiting the results of two studies cconducted on thousands of people in the early stages of the disease, reports the Financial Time.
Financial markets see the news as a high-risk, high-reward bet, if the stock were to recover. Today Novo Nordisk share fell by 1,15% to 372,65 Danish kroner, after having in a year lost over 40%. After all, the same Ludovic Helfgott, Executive Vice President of Product and Portfolio Strategy, recently acknowledged that Novo has always viewed clinical trials as a “lottery ticket.” Novo Nordisk shares have plummeted over the past year, due to a combination of disappointing results in a trial of a new obesity treatment, the company's inability to maintain its lead over Eli Lilly in the US market and competition from low-cost anti-obesity drugs.
Once the results are published, scientists and investors will carefully scrutinize them. details to assess who the drug will work for and, consequently, how big could the market beScientific director Martin Lange said that, with a “such a great unmet need”, any statistically significant result will be “clinically significant”.
Evan Seigerman, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, believes that even a small improvement compared to placebo could send Novo Nordisk shares up 5-10%.
A potential of 55 million people to be treated
Phase 3 studies, which results should be published this quarter, are focused on an area of enormous need: helping to cure some of the 55 million people dementia patients around the world. At first glance, the chances of success seem slim: the vast majority of experimental Alzheimer's drugs have so far proven to be failures. Those that have been successfully brought to market in recent years, such as those from Eisai, Biogen, and Eli Lilly, can only slow cognitive decline but have so far been unable to reverse it.
However, some shareholders are starting to consider experiments in a more positive way, which use a synthetic version of the'GLP-1 hormone and regulates blood sugar. A healthcare fund manager who owns Novo shares said the outlook is “scientifically very interesting“, describing the active ingredients of Wegovy and Ozempic, as “miracle drugs”, reports the Financial Time. These drugs are already proving effective, not only in the treatment of diabetes and obesity, but also in other areas much wider, including reducing the risk of heart attacks and strokes and the improvement of kidney function.
Studies of the effects of GLP-1 on the brain
Scientists are studying the potential effects of GLP-1 on the brain since the early 2000s. Christian Hölscher, professor of neuroscience at Henan University in China, engaged in the development of treatments forAlzheimer's and Parkinson's disease, began working on this link around 2007. Although he initially saw little chance for Novo's GLP-1s, in 2020, a study Hölscher was working on “completely changed my mind,” in his opinion, because there were signs of slowing disease progression in Alzheimer's patients.
New is leading two clinical studies, each with 1.800 patients and lasting three years and four months, in 30 countries. Hölscher said that in the field of dementia, the scope of the research was “colossal…I have never seen clinical studies like this before, so this will give us the definitive answer.” The scientific director Martin Lange He said the evidence that encouraged Novo to conduct large-scale clinical trials included a study of the medical records of people with diabetes who were taking semagglutide for two years. This has revealed a 53% reduction in dementia diagnoses, a “highly statistically significant” result. Other studies of people taking semaglutide over the same period found a 21–43% reduction in the risk of being diagnosed with dementia.
Excess sugar leads to an accelerated path to Alzheimer's
There is still debate about how semaglutide would work in treating Alzheimer's. A common theory is that GLP-1s may mitigate excess sugar in the brain, which some believe leads to inflammation, accelerating the buildup of amyloid and tau proteins, which are characteristics of Alzheimer's. This excess sugar It could be one of the reasons why people with obesity or diabetes are more likely to develop Alzheimer's. “If you are obese, your risk of developing Alzheimer's is approximately double, while if you have diabetes, your risk is approximately tripled, which is partly suspected to be due to a poor metabolic control in the brain“, Lange said.
Ivan Koychev, associate professor of neuropsychiatry at Imperial College London, claims that precisely amyloid and tau protein are an important factor in the cause of Alzheimer's. He also believes that the most plausible explanation of the sharp drop in dementia diagnoses among semaglutide users in just two years botheffect of the drug on inflammation, one of the main triggers of the disease. "These drugs have a very strong effect on systemic inflammation," he said. "There also appears to be a specific effect on neuroinflammation." Koychev is leading a study to further investigate the effects of GLP-1 on the brain. He said there are other hypotheses that need to be considered: perhaps they reduce the incidence of stroke, a risk factor for developing dementia, or alter insulin levels, which are thought to contribute to tau accumulation in the brain.
Other experts are more cautious on the chances of success. John Hardy Director of the Department of Molecular Biology of Neurological Diseases at UCL, for example, said he doesn't believe GLP-1s will have a direct, disease-modifying effect on Alzheimer's disease. "Frankly, I don't expect a positive outcome. That's my prediction, but I have to admit I've been wrong many times," he said. Hardy believes it's more likely that if GLP-1s do have an impact on dementia, it's due to side effects such as the reduction of the damage to blood vesselsAccording to the Alzheimer's Society, at least 70% of people with this disease may have damage to the blood vessels in the brain.
