Four months have passed since Trump dropped the first bomb in his trade war and, while his trading partners have not yet managed to counterattack decisively, the tycoon has already succeeded in raise nearly $50 billion in extra customs revenue at low cost.
According to data published by the United States Treasury, le US revenue resulting from customs duties have reached the record level of $64 billion in the second quarter, or 47 billion dollars more than in the same period last year, reports the ft extension
Only China and Canada so far they have dared reply to Washington's imposition of minimum global tariffs of 10%, 50% duties on steel and aluminum, and 25% on automobiles.
But the rates of China's retaliation on American imports, the most significant among all countries, did not have the same effect on the US coffers: overall revenues from customs duties increased by only 1,9% in May 2025 compared to the previous year. Added to the limited Canada's retaliation, which has yet to release second-quarter customs data, the tariffs imposed on American exports worldwide represent a tiny fraction of U.S. revenue over the same period.
Retaliatory tariffs put on hold for now
Some other US trading partners, however, have decided not to respond in the same way during negotiations with Trump, to avoid having to pay even higher tariffs.XNUMX-XNUMX business days For example, it has only planned the counter-tariffs so far, but has repeatedly postponed their implementation, now tying them to the August 1 deadline set by Trump for the talks. When it published the'updated list of potential retaliatory targets on goods worth €72 billion, including Boeing planes, cars and bourbon, did not name specific tariffs on individual products, perhaps in an attempt not to further anger Trump.
The experts of the supply chain They say the cost of Trump's tariffs falls not only on the American consumers, as international brands seek to to distribute the impact of cost increases worldwide to minimize the impact on the US market.
Big brands like Apple, Adidas and Mercedes They will try to mitigate the impact of price increases, says Simon Geale, executive vice president of Proxima, a supply chain consultancy owned by Bain & Company. “Global brands can try to absorb some of the tariff costs through smart sourcing and cost savings, but the majority will have to be distributed on other markets, because US consumers might accept a 5 percent increase, but not a 20 or even 40 percent increase,” says Geale.
Postponing countermeasures is good economic sense
But even as US tariffs reached levels not seen since the 30s, the timid global response to Trump prevented a spiral of retaliation similar to the one that decimated global trade. between the First and Second World Wars. Economists have said that the United States' dominant position as the world's largest consumer market, coupled with Trump's threats to double tariffs on states that challenge him, means that for most countries the decision to "stand down" it wasn't cowardice, but economic common sense.
According to a model developed by the consultancy firm Capital Economics, a highly escalating trade war, in which the average reciprocal tariff rate reaches 24%, would represent a 1,3% drop in global GDP over two years, compared to 0,3% in the base case, where the rate would stand at 10%.
“Unlike the 30s, when countries had more balanced trade relations, today's world is characterized by a hub-and-spoke system with the United States at the center,” he says. Marta Bengoa, professor of international economics at the City University of New York. “This makes the retaliation economically less desirable for most countries, even when it might be politically satisfactory. Trump has made it clear that he is ready to increase “further tariffs in case of retaliation,” Bengoa adds. “Many countries learned from the 2018-2019 trade war that retaliation often leads to counter-retaliation rather than negotiated solutions.”
The United States' largest trading partner, the Mexico, did not react after being hit in March with 25% tariffs on exports not covered by the agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada. From the beginning of talks with Trump, President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that she preferred an agreement.
The world's failure to unite and collectively address Trump's threats has also left the US president more room to target individual states. Last week, he threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil, citing largely political justifications.
China and Canada take a step back after retaliation
But even Canada and China have been cautious about antagonizing Trump, despite being the only two countries to impose retaliatory tariffs. U.S. tariffs on China rose to 145% in mid-April, causing Chinese exports to the United States to plummet by a third in May. Both sides have quickly took a step back, agreeing a 90-day break in Geneva in May, reducing the rate to 30%.
In February and March, the Canada It imposed retaliatory tariffs on nearly C$155 billion, including steel and auto parts. In recent weeks, however, it backed down in the face of U.S. pressure, despite Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's campaign promises to confront Trump. With U.S. trade accounting for 20% of Canada's GDP, compared to 2% for the United States, Carney has calibrated his responses. He abandoned the digital services tax under U.S. pressure and did not follow Trump's decision last month to double the steel tariff to 50%.
Trump threatens drug tariffs starting August 1st
Meanwhile, the long list of products hit by the new American tariffs, now drugs are also addedPresident Donald Trump announced that from August 1st they could snap new tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, as part of its strategy of “reciprocal tariffs” against countries accused of treating the United States unfairly.
The plan calls for a gradual escalation: duties initially contained, to give the multinationals in the sector approximately one year to relocate production on American soil, followed by much more significant increases. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the final goal could reach up to 200 % of tariffs on some categories of drugs.
"We'll start with a low tariff to give companies time to adjust, then we'll raise it significantly," Trump explained. The president explained that the initiative follows the measures already adopted on steel and aluminum, leveraging the Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows for the introduction of tariffs for national security reasons.
If implemented, the move could have serious consequences for the entire global pharmaceutical sector. Colossi like Pfizer, Merck ed Eli Lilly, which produce a large portion of their drugs abroad, risk seeing the costs of accessing the US market rise dramatically. And, as has already happened in other sectors hit by tariffs, US consumers could ultimately pay the price, facing a potential increase in drug prices.
The threat isn't just about drugs. Trump also spoke of asimilar action for semiconductors, “less complicated” to implement in his words, but he avoided providing details.
Meanwhile, the European Union is watching with growing concern. The Vice President of the Commission Maroš Šefčovič is expected in Washington for a new round of talks, while from Beijing A clear condemnation has arrived: “The tariffs interfere with markets and create turbulence in the world,” declared the Chinese government.
