The European Stock Exchanges retreat but do not collapse the threat of a trade war. Moreover, Donald Trump has so far spared the European Union from the tariffs levied on steel and aluminum by China, which has already adopted retaliatory measures and by Japan: the Tokyo Stock Exchange lost 4,5% this morning. The drop in Piazza Affari was much less pronounced around 1,50%, just above the 22 mark. Falls of the same order of magnitude affect Paris and Frankfurt, Madrid -1,3%. Limit damage London -0,85%. Futures anticipate a bearish start on Wall Street. The S&P500 index future is down 0,3%, down 0,6% this morning.
Government bonds in the euro area are once again considered a safe haven. The yield of the German Bund and the 10-year BTP falls to its lowest since January. The ten-year BTP trades at 1,89% and the spread with the Bund slightly up to 137 basis points. Gold continues to rise and reaches its highest level since the beginning of February at 1.342 dollars an ounce. Today it gains 1,1% and on Wednesday it scored the best session since the beginning of 2018 (+1,6%). The weakness of the dollar also supports purchases: a drop in the dollar makes gold more convenient for holders of foreign currency and, therefore, increases the demand for the precious metal. Since the beginning of 2018, gold has gained 3,3% in Dollars, while it breaks even if the performance is calculated in Euros.
Fears of a trade war buoy the yen and penalize the dollar. The dollar/yen exchange rate moved to 104,998 from 105,26 at the last close, after having dropped to 104,64. But the yen is also advancing against the single currency: the euro/yen is trading at 129,36 from 129,50 at the last closing, with an intraday low of 128,96, a level it hasn't seen since August 2017. The euro/dollar is also moving slightly up to 1,2318 from 1,2300.
Oil advances: Brent (today 68,90 dollars a barrel +0,2%), Wti 64,60 dollars against the stock market trend, with the price close to the highs of the year. Barring surprises in the afternoon part of the session, today ends the third positive week in a row. The partial balance is +4%, the largest ever recorded since the beginning of 2018.
Geopolitical tensions dominate the scene. The appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor suggests the cancellation of the Iranian nuclear deal which would open the prospect of sanctions against oil sales by Iran, which has just returned to the free market.
In sharp decline Tenaris -3,9%. South Korea is among the countries exempt from US protectionist measures, so there will be no tariffs on Korean pipes. Eni e Saipem -1,4%. The utilities defend themselves. Terna advance 1,25%, after the illustration of the strategic plan to 2022 which envisages Investments in activities subject to regulation: for 5,3 billion euros, an Ebitda to 2022 of 1,90 billion euros and a dividend with an average annual growth of 3%. Fidentiis has raised the rating to Buy from Hold, targeting 5,30 euros from 5,10 euros. Citigroup confirmed the Buy judgment, target 5,0 euro. Société Generale raised the target price to 5,14 euros from 4,95 euros, Hold judgment confirmed.
In slightly positive ground too Enel Approximately +0,1% thanks to a net profit and a proposed dividend slightly better than expected. A2A +0,6%.
Slightly down Telecom Italy -0,8% now subject to one head-on collision between Vivendi and Elliott Partners. In a note, the US fund, a 5,74% shareholder of Telecom, judges the decision of the Tim directors linked to Bolloré to resign as "cynical and selfish", thus causing the board to lapse. The assembly for the complete renewal of the board has already been convened and will be held on 4 May.
In Piazza Affari the sales continue on stm -4,23%, also penalized by the general weakness of technology. Subdued banks and industrialists, while traveling against the trend Leonardo + 0,87%.
Precipitates Fiat Chrysler –1,63%, one of the companies potentially most damaged by a trade war. Cnh Industrial –1,23%. Asia is worth about 12% of the group's revenues. Cross-duties on agricultural commodities between the United States and China could have a modest impact overall, but it should be remembered that Wall Street's "industrial" sector lost 3% yesterday. Brembo -2,14%. The credit sector is also declining. Understanding leaves on the ground more than 2%, Unicredit -1,24%.
After the denial of the capital increase Monte Paschi Bank recorded a modest increase of +0,15%. Advance Carige +2,47 after Raffaele MIncione declared that he did not rule out increasing his stake to 9,9% from the current 5,4%.
Between insurance Generali falls by 1,70%: a decision on the valuation of Generali Leben could be imminent. Unipol -0,9%%, he turned over his 64% stake in Arca Vita (joint venture with Bper Banking down 2%) a UnipolSai -1,01%. 475 million transaction.
Cattolica Insurance, down 1%, anticipated approval of the proposal adoption of a new bylawsto be submitted to the shareholders' meeting. The proposal provides for the raising of the maximum capital threshold for legal entities to 5%, including investment funds.
