Yesterday the placement of the Btp to 15 years he saw very high demandsand, but it is no longer an exceptional event. The Italian “paper” is very appealing for investors looking at returns Still interesting, while Italy's situation, with an improving rating, stable government, and a sound debt structure, reassures all investors who no longer view them as risky assets. Quite the opposite.
What we saw on the occasion of the placement of the 15-year BTP, "was a real market event, not a simple technical success" he said Gabriel Debach, market analyst of eTorus. The Treasury has allocated €14 billion against requests for €157,6 billion, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 11,26 times. The bond, maturing on October 1, 2041, has a coupon of 3,95% and a gross yield of 3,99%, with a hammer price of €99,99. It is a level of demand, which replicates and partly exceeds that seen on the 15-year BTP of February 2025, when 13 billion were assigned against over 134 billion in requests, bid-to-cover 10,31. "A clear signal, the'appetite for the risk in Italy is not episodic, it is structural” says Debach.
The expiration date is good, but the interest is on the entire curve
Investors at the 15-year auction are institutional investors, specialists in looking at the future of yields. They aren't certain they'll last, as they're already at their highest levels in decades. They're pricing in a possible rate cut in the future, consistent with declining inflation in the Eurozone: a sign of optimism, which would, however, translate into a flatter curve. The 15-year BTP is perhaps the perfect maturity: it offers a long, but not very long, duration, between 10 and 20-30 years.
But the picture becomes even clearer if you look at it the entire curve. On January 8, 2026, the Btp 7 years, maturing in March 2033, was placed via syndicate for 15 billion with requests amounting to 150,4 billion, The bid-to-cover ratio was above 10, with a coupon of 3,15% and a gross yield of 3,191%. Again, the price remained close to par, a sign that demand was not driven by aggressive discounts, but by confident allocations.
On ordinary auctions at the end of January the picture remains consistent. The Btp 10 years, maturing February 2036, was allocated for 3,75 billion with a demand of 5,62 billion, coverage ratio 1,50, coupon 3,45% and gross yield 3,44%. Btp 5 years, maturing February 2031, recorded a bid-to-cover of 1,59 with a gross yield of 2,74%. Btp 3 years, maturing March 2029, was placed with a coverage of 1,45 and a gross yield of 2,48%. There was no forced bidding, no forced auction, but steady and orderly demand across all key maturities.
“The key point is that today theItalian bond it is bought not despite the debt, but also for how that debt is structured: high life expectancy, prevalence of fixed rate, more balanced maturity profile,” says Debach.
The spread is at its lowest since 2008 and could fall further towards 50 basis points in 2026
But there is an element that perhaps weighs today even more in the models of large global funds: the European relative comparison. "L'Italy It is no longer evaluated in a vacuum, but against France and Germany. France pays an increasing risk premium for structurally high deficits and political instability, even after the passage of the financial plan. Germany chose to explicitly use the public budget to finance investments and defense, increasing the need for emissions” Debach further observes. “In this context, the BTP offer higher yields and a risk narrative that appears more stable.
It is no coincidence that it Oat-Bund spread has narrowed from 72 basis points a year ago to the current 57,6, while the BTP-Bund spread fell from 111,6 to around 61 bp (the lowest since the tragic 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers), and not even if in some sessions the Italian decennial has yielded less than its French counterpart. According to some economists, it spread in 2026 could arrive at 50-60 basis points for the'Italy and 30-40 for the Spain, thanks to the rise in German yields to the 3% area, the highest since 2011. Italy, meanwhile, has seen improve overall the requirements of the State last year. The Germany It will become the largest player in the euro area's primary markets by 2026, with net issuance exceeding €140 billion and gross issuance exceeding €350 billion, analysts say.
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“The political factor also contributes to strengthening this picture,” says Debach. “Italy today enjoys a stability higher than other large Eurozone countries, with a political horizon that reaches up to the 2027 elections". And this is an element that reduces uncertainty perceived by international investors. S&P Global has recently raised theItaly's outlook from stable to positive, confirming the BBB+ rating. A signal that fits into a sequence of favorable reviews from which the country also benefits on the reputation plan. The next stop could be Italy's return in classification A.
“This evolution is not just the product of high yields. Yield is the final effect, not the primary cause. The cause is the perception of risk controllability" emphasizes the eToro analyst. "Today, BTPs are entering portfolios by construction, not just as a gamble. The question is no longer why the market buys BTPs, but what would have to happen for it to stop buying them. And as long as the answer remains vague, influenced by external shocks rather than internal errors, the message of this auction is clear. Italian debt today isn't asking for trust; it's monetizing it."
What emissions should we expect in Italy in 2026?
Meanwhile, analysts are doing forecasts on upcoming emissions this year: full speed ahead on retail emissions, average maturities are lengthening with the hypothesis of reopening the chapter of the matusalem bonds 50 years, and keep an eye out for opportunities on the foreign currency issues such as the dollar, to respond to global investors' interest in Italian debt.
In the first months of 2026, the Ministry of Economy will return to the market with a large-scale placement plan, for a minimum amount estimated at 38 billion of euros. The program, announced by the ministry in Via Venti Settembre, provides for the use of different types of BTPs: very short-term instruments and three-year bonds for approximately 9 billion each, accompanied by medium-term issues with five-year and seven-year BTPs for 10 billion respectively.
Many maturing bonds but also lower government sector needs
La size of emissions 2026 will be strongly influenced by both bond maturities currently in circulation both from financing needs of the State. Net of Treasury bills, the refunds expected for that year are around 256 billion euros. Instead the state sector needs for the year 2025 is estimated at 125.500 million (in 2024 it was equal to 125.083 million and shows an improvement compared to the forecasts contained in the Public Finance Programming Document (around 127.200 million), with a surplus in December that rose to over 11,7 billion from 7,8 in the same month in 2024.
Le Italian families and businesses increasingly protagonists in the purchase of Treasury bills and Italian government bonds. In August 2025, they held 442,4 billion euros of Italian public debt, equal to 14,4% of the total of 3.081 billion (3.080,9 in September), almost double the minimum of 7,9% recorded in 2021. The BTP Italy, much sought after in recent years by small savers, due to its link with inflation which is expected to decline. On the contrary, the Btp Value could still pay off, analysts say.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Italian debt will rise until 2027, then it will reverse course.
Of course, we must also keep an eye on the monstrous level of Italian public debt. The International Monetary Fund reported in its Fiscal Monitor last October that global public debt it could go up above 100% of GDP by 2029, reaching the highest level since 1948, just after the end of the Second World War. The Fund indicated Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States like the “countries with a high debt but with moderate budgetary risks“. Specifically, for the'Italy The IMF forecasts a rising debt ratio until 2027, after which it will decline. This year, it will stand at 136,8%, then increase to 138,3% in 2026 and 138,5% in 2027. It will decline to 137,9% in 2028 and further decrease to 137,3% in 2029. Then, again, to 137,0% in 2030. The deficit is estimated at 3,3% of GDP this year and is expected to decline to 2,8% in 2026. It will then continue to decline in subsequent years, reaching 2,3% in 2027 and 2,5% in 2030.
