The forecast for GDP growth in 2016 for the United Kingdom is 2,1%, that of the Eurozone is 0,3%. So we should conclude that Was Brexit the right choice for the UK? The answer is No.. Growth across the Channel is drugged by excessively expansive policies while that of the Eurozone is depressed by a mix of policies that are still, on the whole, restrictive.
So much so that the current account balance (ie exports minus imports) of the UK in 2016 will have a colossal deficit of over 6% of GDP while, conversely, the Eurozone will have a surplus of around 3% of GDP. Not surprisingly, the pound is collapsing under the biggest speculative attack since 1992. Brexit was a gut choice and the knots are quickly coming to a head.
It will be recalled that Cameron had used the referendum on leaving as a negotiating tool to obtain more favorable conditions from the European Union. But, as sometimes happens to inexperienced illusionists, it is they themselves who end up in their own traps, who fall victim to self-deception. The collapse of the pound is the de profundis of the City: never seen a global financial center with its own weak currency.
And, with the City, the entire advanced services sector will take a big hit, which was establishing itself as the true backbone of the United Kingdom. In short, a real disaster. The ignorant and uninformed majority of British voters, led by an elite unworthy, before and after Brexit, of that country's great traditions has deluded itself into being able to return to a glorious past that does not exist (and there cannot be ) more.
She deluded herself that the large influxes of foreigners were taking jobs away from the natives. Instead it was the opposite: thanks to the great openness, flexibility and relative efficiency, the British economy attracted talents whose "creative" jobs also kept alive the "any" jobs of the majority of natives. A good policy would have avoided summoning those spirits.
But already 700 years ago Ambrogio Lorenzetti, faced with that of good governance, painted the allegory of bad government. And so it went this time. One can only hope that the German-led European Union does not strike back at the rash acts of the current British leadership that that country does not deserve. Otherwise, as for the characters of Italo Svevo, self-deception will lead to self-destruction.
