Investors, who started the year with the turbulent geopolitical climate, this week could shift attention to the prospects of the companies related to artificial intelligence since there is a huge amount of agenda quarterly reports tech, and on the progress of interest rates with a meeting of the Federal Reserve scheduled. But it is also the currency market destined to monopolize the scene as the spectre of the first looms joint intervention between the United States and Japan against the yen in 15 years, sharply rising against the dollar. The movement against the yen has sunk the Tokyo Stock Exchange, while the weakness of the dollar has benefited the precious metals, also supported by flows towards safe haven assets, with the which surpassed for the first time the $5.100 an ounce e silver which jumped more than 4%, reaching another all-time high at $109,45 an ounce.
Geopolitical fractures remain in the background. After the Greenland dossier, Trump intensified trade frictions with the United States over the weekend. Canada, promising to impose 100% duties on Canadian goods if Ottawa were to proceed with a trade deal with the ChinaTrump wrote on his social media platform that Canada could be used as a “clearinghouse” for Chinese goods entering the United States and warned that Beijing “it will eat Canada alive” if this agreement were to go ahead.
Yen hits 4-month high against dollar, suggesting joint US-Japan intervention is possible
Friday's volatile spikes were followed by a much more orderly gallop on Monday, bringing the yen al maximum of the last four months of 153,81 per U.S. dollar, from Friday's low of 159,23.
On Friday, sources told Reuters The New York Federal Reserve has been contacting traders to verify rates, which has often been a sign of imminent intervention in the currency market. Such a sharp move in the yen without actual intervention indicates nervousness among investors, analysts say, with traders likely to liquidate short yen positions for fear of hindering the authorities' intervention in the market. This morning, the highest Japanese authorities they stated that they worked closely coordination with the United States on currency exchanges.
The yen's movement has cast a shadow over global markets, dragging the US dollar down and pushing up some of the Asian currencies, including the South Korean wonThe strengthening of the yen weighed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the index Nikkei which slipped by about 2%. For the rest, the stock markets Indians have remained closed for a holiday, the index Kospi of South Korea dropped 0,81% after hitting an intraday record of 5.023,76 points, while the Shanghai China's composite was flat and Australia's ASX 200 index rose 0,13%. Conversely, Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0,63%.
The Singapore dollar hit its highest level in more than 11 years against the US dollar.
US futures are down this morning (-0,13% on the S&P500), while thegold and silver they updated new all-time highs, at $5.111 an ounce and $109,45 an ounce, respectively, in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and the decline in dollar. The Platinum marked a new peak of $2.798,46 an ounce. Theeuro jumps 0,60% to $1,1857
Quarterly data from 4 of the "Magnificent Seven" this week
Investors' attention will be focused this week on quarterly data, especially with regards to the sector ofartificial intelligence, with the analyst which overall provide for a Profits are expected to increase again this year.
About a fifth of Wall Street's S&P 500 index will release quarterly results, including Apple , ecosystem, Meta Platforms and Tesla, four of the "Magnificent 7" large-cap companies. After the third consecutive year of double-digit returns for the S&P 500, the benchmark index is up about 1% since the beginning of the year. The index's valuation is also 22 times higher than expected earnings For S&P 500 companies, earnings are well above their long-term average of 15,9, so it's best to meet the earnings bar. Of the 59 US companies that reported results last week, 81% beat analysts' estimates. According to Tajinder Dhillon, head of earnings research at LSEG, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have increased 9,1% in the fourth quarter of last year compared to the previous year. In 2026, it is expected that the S&P 500 index earnings will increase by more than 15%.
Friday Wall Street A turbulent week ended mixed: the Dow Jones closed down 0,58%, the S&P 500 stable, and the Nasdaq up 0,28%. All markets declined for the week: the Dow 0,53%, the S&P 500 0,36%, and the Nasdaq 0,06%.
A hard blow to market sentiment came from the chipmaker Intel Its shares plunged 17% on Friday after the company forecast quarterly revenue and profit below market estimates, saying it had difficulty meeting demand for its server chips used in artificial intelligence data centers. Most megacaps, however, rose, with Microsoft, Meta and Amazon on the rise between 1,7% and 3,3%. Nvidia gained 1,5% after Bloomberg News reported that Chinese officials told Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance can prepare orders for Nvidia's H200 AI chips.
Markets are also expecting a Federal Reserve meeting expected this week, when the central bank is expected to will keep rates steady, but most of the attention will be paid to the concerns about independence of the central bank. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates more aggressively and the Justice Department has now threatened acriminal investigation against Powell in connection with renovations to the Fed's new headquarters building. Additionally, Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook is pending a hearing at the Supreme Court.
Concerns increased over the weekend another US government shutdown, after Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer vowed to block a massive spending package unless Republicans slash funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
European stock markets opened little changed. At the Milan Stock Exchange, eyes were on Intesa Sanpaolo, Generali, MPS, Banco BPM, Stellantis, TIM, and Pirelli.
European stock markets are expected to open slightly lower, based on a +0,08% gain in Eurostoxx50 futures.
Intesa SanpaoloBoth the Italian bank and the Roman construction group Caltagirone have denied rumors of discussions regarding the sale of the group's stake in Generali to Ca' de Sass. Intesa's board of directors meeting on February 1st is only considering the 2025 budget and the 2026-2029 plan. The Caltagirone group also believes the news "is completely baseless," since there has been "no contact with Intesa on this matter."
Ps The Board of Directors will meet again on Wednesday, January 28th, to resolve the issues surrounding the drafting of the Board of Directors' list for the renewal of the top management. The Nomination Committee is seeking to exclude the CEO from the candidate selection process and has questioned Luigi Lovaglio's re-election due to his current investigation in Milan. A decision will be made by the Board of Directors on Wednesday, before the shareholders vote on the amendments to the bylaws on February 4th.
Banco BPM. Some board members have begun a review of the potential competitive implications of Credit Agricole's participation. The Antitrust Authority is also examining the risks of banking concentration to understand the potential impact of a French stake approaching 30%.
Tim and the fiber optic network operator Open Fiber They are reportedly in talks to activate 200.000 new fiber optic lines, with the goal of doubling their coverage to 400.000 lines by mid-2028. The negotiations are reportedly part of the expansion plans of the current commercial partnership between the two companies. Furthermore, Barclays has raised its target price on TIM ordinary shares from €0,6 to €0,65, from €0,6, and on savings shares from €0,72 to €0,77.
StellantisIndia will cut tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from levels currently as high as 110%, as part of a free trade agreement that could be reached as early as Tuesday, January 27. India would immediately reduce tariffs on a limited number of vehicles from the EU with an import price of more than €15.000. This rate would be further reduced to 10% over time.
PirelliCamfin has announced its intention not to renew the shareholders' agreement, expiring on May 18, which binds it to the Chinese company Sinochem, a shareholder in the group, and to Iveco, which has forecast free cash flow from industrial activities of €60 million for 2025, well below the previous target of €250 million to €350 million. Furthermore, the group has warned that all other objectives will be met or remain slightly below guidance. The estimate of a special dividend of between €5,5 and €6,0 per share has been confirmed.
