European stock markets are experiencing renewed optimism following yesterday's White House meeting between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, and much of Europe's political elite. Many uncertainties still surround the peace process between Moscow and Kiev, and Trump even told Fox News that Putin might "not want" an agreement. However, markets have chosen to look at the glass half full today, rallying to recent highs.
Piazza Affari closed up 0,89%, gaining 43 basis points (after hovering around this threshold throughout the session), thanks to luxury goods and banking stocks, while Leonardo plunged (-10,16%), like all European defense stocks. What's holding the sector back is not so much the winds of peace, but the risk that US manufacturers will be flooded with orders, after Zelenskiy yesterday expressed his willingness to purchase $90 billion worth of US weapons, with the help of other continental countries.
The pattern for blue chips is thus repeated with different nuances in Frankfurt +0,46%, Paris +1,21%, Amsterdam +0,56%, Madrid +0,41%, London +0,37%.
Wall Street shares are mixed, while Home Depot soars.
In New York, the financial climate currently appears a bit more volatile. The DJ is up 0,17%, boosted by Home Depot (+4%), which presented disappointing quarterly results but confirmed its full-year forecast. This estimate is comforting for investors, always attentive to US consumption, in a week when, in addition to the store chain, other retail giants such as Lowe's, Target, and Walmart will also be releasing their results.
The Nasdaq, however, fell by 1,02% and saw Nvidia in the red (-2%), while Intel was strong (+5,2%), following the news of a capital injection of 2 billion dollars from the Japanese group Softbank (-4,01% this morning in Tokyo).
US stocks and bonds breathed a sigh of relief last night after S&P Global confirmed the "AA+" rating for the United States. However, the future presents many risks. The trajectory of the US budget remains worrying, according to the agency, given that the high US deficit will push debt to exceed 100% of GDP within the next three years. Revenue from tariffs could at least partially offset the additional deficit generated by President Trump's fiscal policies, but S&P warns that "the political inability to contain the increase in spending" could lead to an upcoming rating cut.
In this context, monetary policy can play a decisive role, and this is why anticipation is growing for the central bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.
Declining oil
The possibility of a solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is weighing on the oil market today, as the risk of sanctions on Moscow crude oil being lifted and the resulting increase in supply is being felt.
Currently, oil sales are slowing, and October futures are recording fractional declines: Texas crude is down 0,93%, trading at $62,12 a barrel, and Brent is down 0,77%, trading at $66,09. Gas in Amsterdam is trading just over $31 per MWh.
On the currency market, the euro is paring back the gains it made after the Washington meeting. The euro-dollar exchange rate is currently virtually flat, trading below 1,17 at 1,1666.
Piazza Affari, Moncler shines
Moncler leads the way on the Milan Stock Exchange, up 4,95% in a luxury sector buoyed by hopes for peace. Among Milanese stocks in the sector, Cucinelli (+1,92%) and Ferragamo (+3,51%) also stand out. Blue chip stocks also performing well include Amplifon (+3,91%), Stellantis (+3,22%), Campari (+2,83%), and Interpump (+2,69%).
Banks are back in the green after yesterday's pause. The best performer is Intesa Sanpaolo, up 2,11%. Investors also remain focused on the ongoing battle between MPS (+1,35%) and Mediobanca (+1,51%). The battle will kick off on Thursday, when shareholders will gather in Piazza Cuccia to vote on the offer for Banca Generali (+0,59%), a move that would deprive Siena of a tasty morsel like Generali (+0,15%).
Several developments are underway in the run-up to this event. The ECB has given the green light to the takeover bid, but meanwhile, subscriptions to Montepaschi's takeover bid for Mediobanca rose to over 19% yesterday, likely thanks to Delfin. And speaking of Delfin, Ansa, citing financial sources, reports that the ECB has granted the Del Vecchio family's holding company authorization (which was granted on August 12) to hold a stake in Monte dei Paschi di Siena of up to 19,99%, up from the current 9,9%. In short, a lot of embers are burning under the ashes, and the fire is just around the corner.
Among the biggest declines of the day: along with Leonardo, Fincantieri also fell by a similar amount (-10,11%). Among the blue-chip stocks, utilities such as Italgas (-1,25%) and Snam (-0,48%) fell.
Spreads up slightly
Italian paper is currently moderately negative: the spread between the 83-year BTP and its German counterpart rises to 1,11 basis points (+3,59%), with rates at 2,75% and XNUMX% respectively.
