In the first nine months of the year, with a cumulative turnover of 208,28 billion euros, the factoring market recorded an increase of 3,75% Compared to the same period in 2024, advances and payments also increased significantly (+6,31%). September, in particular, stood out for a significant result: the volume of transactions increased by 16,4% compared to September 2024, a growth rate not seen since 2022.
The positive results of this 2025 emerged on the occasion of theObservatory on the factoring market, an event organized in Milan at the BNP Paribas headquarters by Assifact, the Italian factoring association that brings together operators in a sector worth 13% of GDP and which provides credit disposal services, access to liquidity, and working capital management to more than 32.000 Italian companies.
Factoring Market Forecast
According to the ForeFact report, developed by Assifact both through projections based on economic data and through a survey of its members, The factoring market will close the year on a positive note and will continue to grow in 2026.The expected change in turnover for 2025, considering the factoring/GDP ratio, fluctuates between +3,16% and +4,83%, while an average +3,26% is expected for 2026, depending on the underlying scenario assumptions; 2) Factoring market operators expect turnover growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 of +4,36% and are also optimistic for 2026 (+3,20%).
The ForeFact report was presented by Diego Tavecchia, Chief Operating Officer of Assifact, who then moderated a roundtable discussion with Andrea Berna (Banca Ifis), Chiara Bracci (Ifitalia), and Massimo Gianolli (Generalfinance). The proceedings were opened by Paolo Vetta, Head of the North-West Region of Rete Unica BNL, and Alessandro Carretta, Secretary General of Assifact and Professor Emeritus of Financial Intermediary Economics at the University of Rome Tor Vergata. The international economic context and the prospects for the Italian economy were explored in depth by Rony Hamaui, Professor of Monetary Economics at the Catholic University of Milan, and Alessandra Benedini, Associate Partner Prometeia.
“Factoring – he stated Alexander Carretta – is facing several important milestones that could free up crucial resources for business growth and the country's competitiveness. The European Banking Authority's new guidelines on default, expected after the consultation, mark a significant step forward by extending the deadline for technically past due dates from 30 to 90 days, a measure that at least partially recognizes the specific nature of our sector. Overall, it is estimated that greater recognition of these specificities could free up, at the same risk, approximately €2 billion in additional financing for SMEs and public administration suppliers.
“In parallel – Carretta announced – Assifact is bringing this to the attention of the Government and Parliament A package of proposals to simplify regulations and remove obstacles, with the aim of making it easier for businesses to liquidate receivables, access liquidity, and manage working capital. These measures could free up additional resources amounting to several billion euros in liquidity for SMEs and public administration suppliers, support investment and employment, and strengthen the resilience of the Italian economy.
The Prometeia scenario
According to Prometeia, which outlined the scenario for the main factoring-using sectors for the ForeFact Report, the Italian economy will close 2025 with moderate GDP growth (+0,5%), supported by domestic demand, particularly investment, thanks to PNRR spending, while foreign demand is affected by international tensions. In this context, estimates for the end of 2025 indicate substantial stability in activity levels in the sectors that use factoring the most, which have a trade exposure of 17,6% of turnover.
The scenario outlined by Prometeia for the two-year period 2026-2027 highlights a gradual recovery of turnover and trade credits of companies making greater use of factoring, driven by the most technologically intensive manufacturing sectors and the transportation, warehousing, and wholesale sectors. This scenario opens up opportunities for a more strategic use of factoring, which remains an important lever for ensuring liquidity and financial stability, supporting business resilience and the continuity of supply chains in a still uncertain economic cycle..
Default definition and EBA consultation
The European Banking Authority (EBA) conducted a public consultation, launched in early July and concluded on October 15, on updating its guidelines on the definition of default ("DoD"), implementing the mandate given to it by Capital Requirements Regulation 3, the European regulation that entered into force on January 1, 2025, establishing new and more stringent rules on banks' capital requirements. In the consultation document, the EBA proposed amending the treatment of factoring, accepting a long-standing request from the industry to extend the technical default period from 30 to 90 days. The change is very important because it gives factoring companies more time To determine the causes of payment delays, making the timeframes more consistent with actual operating deadlines. The initiative also represents recognition of the specific nature of factoring, which requires different rules than bank loans. Assifact expressed its full support for the extension to 90 days but emphasized the unresolved issue of receivables from the Public Administration, which are still penalized despite the absence of losses.
Assifact's simplification proposals
Factoring is a strategic lever for the competitiveness of Italian businesses, especially small and medium-sized ones. This is a well-established fact, but its full potential is hampered by regulatory and operational obstacles which prevent or make it more complex to liquidate credit and reduce companies' ability to access liquidity. Assifact, the Italian factoring association, proposes a package of measures to remove these barriers and promote growth in the real economy.
The main measures that Assifact proposes to implement are:
- Harmonized definition of default: adapt EBA rules to the specificities of factoring, avoiding anomalous default classifications for late payments, especially to public administrations.
- Proportionate prudential treatment: introduce capital requirements consistent with the actual risk of factoring, allowing the transferor's risk to be replaced by that of the debtor and more granular approaches to be adopted.
- Update of the revocation rules: coordinate the legislation with the new Corporate Crisis Code, reducing the suspect period and aligning it with securitization transactions.
- Prohibition of non-transferability clauses on credits: render ineffective or unenforceable against the transferee any clauses that prevent the transfer, in line with European guidelines, to expand financing options for SMEs.
- Simplification of transfers to the Public Administration: eliminate bureaucratic formalities (public deed, notarization), allowing for private deeds and digital methods.
- Overcoming the Public Administration's right to refuse the transfer: abolish the right of indiscriminate refusal, ensuring operational certainty and equal treatment with respect to sales between private individuals.
These measures, which do not entail any burden on public finances, could according to Assifact's assessments free up significant resources additional financing for SMEs and public administration suppliers, with positive impacts on investment, employment, and competitiveness.
