2017 was characterized by a widespread recovery in global growth which was supported by an increase in trade. According to data relating to the first three quarters of the year, global merchandise exports grew by 4,3% y/y, the highest value since 2011. Among the main exporters, growth was particularly lively in the countries Asians: +7,8% in China, +8,2% in South Korea and +5,8% in Japan.
The ranking of the main exporters in the world in 2017 remains unchanged compared to the previous year, with China, the United States and Germany in the top 3 positions. The Chinese share, equal to 13,6% of the total, is however today more than 9 percentage points higher than in 2001 (the year of accession to the WTO). Among others, it was the USA that paid the price for the increase in the Chinese weight, which lost 2,7 points on the portion of exports covered in 2001. Italy, which accounts for 2,8% of world exports, occupies the ninth position.
Both the increase in protectionism and the growing difficulties in defining new trade agreements weigh on the future evolution of trade. A study by Global trade alert (which adopts a broad definition of a potentially restrictive trade measure) counts nearly 4.300 protectionist measures introduced between mid-2009 and mid-2017. The G7 countries (plus Australia) in mid-2017 were responsible for 55% of the total of the new measures introduced.
Among the international trade agreements under review, TPP and NAFTA represent the most interesting, due to their relevant economic and political implications. After the US withdrew from the TPP talks an agreement between the remaining countries seemed unlikely. Instead, thanks above all to the initiative of Japan, the entry into force of the agreement could take place as from 2019. The new TPP should involve an output of 10 trillion dollars.
The role of the WTO, a pact between 164 countries which accounts for 85% of world trade, is also under discussion today, albeit on a purely informal level. The rules of the organization date back to the early XNUMXs when attempts were made, among other things, to involve the countries of Eastern Europe. The defined model was then also applied to other economies in transition, including China, which according to some observers would have drawn a net profit from the system.
