In 2024, employment in Italy touched record levels, reaching almost 24 million employed. This result was driven by a increase in jobs and from recovery of hours worked, a remarkable progress considering the continuing reduction of the working-age population. The employment rate increased by 7 percentage points compared to 2014, with women leading the way in this recovery. However, the GDP growth remains disappointing, stuck at 1,2%, a figure that confirms the slowdown already observed in 2023. This picture emerges from theanalysis by the Ref study center (Economic and Financial Research), reported in the Congiuntura Ref report, directed by Fedele De Novellis.
Italy is not an isolated case, however. Even French e Germany have seen a sharp increase in employment compared to pre-pandemic levels. In France, for example, apprenticeship contracts have played a crucial role, while in Germany the labor market has shown similar resilience. However, in all three countries, the productivity of the work has recorded modest increases, signaling a widening gap between labor employment and overall economic growth.
Positive signals on the quality of work
Despite the gap between employment and GDP, the quality of work shows encouraging signs. The contracts indefinitely increased from 61% in 2019 to 63% in 2024, while those at dates dropped from 16,9% to 15,1%. Also the involuntary part-time, often indicative of precariousness, is declining. After years of decline, the self-employment it has stabilized at around 5 million employed.
Le hours worked have recovered pre-pandemic levels, exceeding 5,7 levels by 2019% and 0,4 levels by 2007%. However, labor productivity continues to grow slowly, a common phenomenon in other European countries: the expansion of employment has not translated into a significant increase in GDP, which continues to grow at a modest pace.
Unemployment down, but demographic challenges remain
Il unemployment rate has fallen to 7%, one of the lowest levels in recent years, with fewer than 1,5 million people looking for work. However, the labor market is facing a complex transition demographic. The job offer is increasingly skewed towards older generations, due to the low birth rate and increased longevity. Although the activity rate is slightly growing, it is unable to fully compensate for these dynamics.
Furthermore, companies report difficulty in finding qualified manpower. Vacancies are rising, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand. Digital and ecological transitions require skills that older workforces often lack, making recruitment in key sectors difficult.
Young people and wages under pressure
An encouraging fact concerns the young: youth employment rate is growing and the share of NEET dropped from 22,4% to 15,3% between 2019 and 2024. This reflects improved job opportunities for younger generations.
Despite falling unemployment and increased opportunities for young people, the real wages remain the Achilles heel: they don't keep pace with inflation, reducing purchasing power and especially affecting low-middle income families. The phenomenon of in-work poverty remains worrying, affecting 8% of those in employment, while the absolute poverty affected 9,7% of the population in 2023.