Over the next 40 years, the demand for fuel for transport will come mainly from India and China, realities which will record an increase in consumption of between 200% and 300%. This is what emerges from the latest report by the WEC (World Energy Council) “Global Transport-Scenarios 2050”.
By 2050, on the other hand, the demand for fuel in developing countries will exceed that of industrialized countries: the increase in consumption will be mainly due to heavy transport, air traffic and ships, and will be satisfied by 80 % from oil at least for the next 40 years. Two scenarios are presented in the report: “Freeway” and “Tollway”. The first envisages a world in which the market and, therefore, competition establishes the way forward. In the second, however, a more regulated world is assumed, in which governments intervene to promote the adoption of alternative technological solutions and to support the diffusion of the necessary transport infrastructures, putting the interests of the community first. Depending on the scenario, fuel needs by 2050 for all forms of transport could grow globally by 80% (Freeway) or 30% (Tollway) compared to 2010 levels. The expected consequences for the environment are considerable.
“The transport sector is about to experience a radical change – explained Karl Rose, director for policies and scenarios of the WEC. The car fleet in OECD countries will be almost completely transformed in terms of fuel mix and we will see a shift in fuel demand towards developing countries. However, the adoption of new technological solutions seems to be slower than many had anticipated and this mainly due to the exceptional growth of the heavy transport sector”.
