Stock markets are bound to rise without a doubt: the Fed's monetary easing, which will continue unabated as long as the US unemployment rate remains above 6,5%, will give that surplus liquidity the lifeblood of the stock markets…
Stock markets will rise again: it's a question of behavioral finance. After the autumnal climate of these days, the weather conditions are bound to improve and there is evidence that the markets go up when the sun is shining because the weather inevitably affects our mood.
Stock markets will fall inexorably. There is no rational link between the depressive trend of the real economy and the stock market prices marked by the main stock indexes. The unfavorable economic situation that grips us will continue to erode the profits of companies and consequently their value. Who is still in position sell.
A dangerous overbought: the main technical analysis oscillators have been sitting at the top of the band for a long time now. A retracement is physiological and necessary: be aware that the descent is always faster than the ascent.
Charles Dow said it at the end of the 800th century: markets are directional. It is therefore easier to find reasons for the continuation of the trend than valid reasons to support its reversal. Don't worry: the up-trend will continue.
We are in a month of assessment for the Top or Bottom, and a powerful setup of the Time Factor expired on April 25th. The fractal expresses directionality up to week 23: the word to the events.
Goldman Sachs has revised downwards bear-against-bull.jpg the estimate for 2013 GDP in Italy from -1,5% to -1,7% (2014: +0,4%). The forecast for Germany was also cut from +0,4% to +0,1% (2014: +1,8%). The return to a new bear cycle is inevitable, which will bring market prices back to more realistic values.
Goldman Sachs has revised downwards its 2013 GDP estimate in Italy from -1,5% to -1,7% (2014: +0,4%). The forecast for Germany was also cut from +0,4% to +0,1% (2014: +1,8%). The good outlook for next year is destined to strengthen current levels: it is well known that the Stock Exchanges are ahead of the times. There is no reason to go out of one's position.
Gold is no longer the quintessential safe haven asset. But if something goes down, something else must go up due to the law of counterweights: this explains the euphoria of equity. It therefore becomes strategic to monitor the price of the yellow metal: only its recovery could stop the bullish cycle of the share asset class.
It was never easy to predict the markets yesterday, it won't be tomorrow: but we have to make some decisions, immobility leads nowhere, it reduces purchasing power, even if inflation these days isn't scary.
There is a good thing that we can choose: thanks also to the Internet, financial information and the opinion of the best analysts are now available to everyone.
We are therefore publishing the latest version of our EUROITA SENTIMENT INDEX, a trend follower algorithm that has been bouncing vigorously towards the top of the band for a month now, suggesting that we return to quickly increase our positions on the Italian/European market so as not to lose a possible start of a new bullish cycle that we hope will continue.
We still don't understand the link of this optimism with the still stammering reality of the local political news and with the still not very reassuring macro data: but it doesn't matter, you can't understand everything.
We will probably further increase the bullish exposure of EUROITA PORTFOLIO at the beginning of next week: someone is starting to say that, if it's a bubble, it's better to be in it.
