The shadow of the recession returns to hover over the markets. Several disturbing signals arrived yesterday from the USA.
1) The US economy continued to expand, but "in a modest way" between September and the beginning of October, according to what emerges from the Beige Book, the report on the state of the economy that the Federal Reserve publishes every six weeks. The Fed, in particular, stressed that manufacturing output was "generally weak" also due to the strong dollar while signs of wage growth were "sporadic".
2) The trend in consumption (+0,1%) largely disappointed Wall Street's expectations.
3) The shock alarm comes from the consumer giant par excellence: Wal Mart (-10%) leaves 20 billion dollars of capitalization on the ground, the heaviest decline for over 17 years. At the origin of the collapse was an extraordinary profit warning, in terms of size and duration. The company announced that the strong dollar, as well as increased wages and e-commerce investments to match Amazon, are expected to take away $15 billion in revenues. The correction will last at least until 2017, with a drop in turnover between 6 and 12%. The crisis will be overcome only in 2019.
Driven by these factors, the US markets closed in the red, despite the good results of Bank of America. Dow Jones down 0,92%, S&P500 -0,56%, Nasdaq -0,3%. Operators are convinced that, given these data, an increase in rates in 2015 is less and less likely.
Hence the positive reaction this morning from Asian price lists. Tokyo climbs 0m6%, Hong Kong +0,8%. Shanghai +0,3% and Shenzhen +0,2% are also on positive ground. Oil is down: Brent trades just above 49 dollars.
The signs of an economic slowdown have also multiplied in Europe. In August, industrial production in the euro area decreased by 0,5% on a monthly basis and increased by 0,9% on an annual basis. According to traders, the ECB may soon be forced to expand its monetary stimulus programme.
Thus the Milan stock exchange and the other European stock exchanges closed in negative territory. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed the session down by 0,9%, the Paris Stock Exchange lost 0,6%, Frankfurt and London -1,1%. Madrid -0,77%.
CHINA ALARM, MONCLER TREMS
In Piazza Affari, the disappointing data from the Chinese economy weighed on the luxury companies. Moncler, after Tuesday's collapse (-6%), fell by 3,2% on the wave of the downward revision of revenues in the third quarter by JP Morgan and Equita. The BoD on the accounts will be held on 9 November. Luxottica (-1,2%) and Yoox (-3%) also down.
THE CHIP ALARM COMES
The semiconductor industry is confirmed as one of the most sensitive indicators of the economy. StM (-1,5%) closed in the red for the third consecutive day.
The Dutch Asml Holding, the leading manufacturer of machinery for the production of semiconductors, presented estimates for the current quarter lower than expectations: the company said that some customers have postponed their orders. In the last quarter of 2015 revenues should be 1,4 billion euros, analysts had expected 1,56 billion.
Intel, which released Tuesday night data last night, beat expectations for the third quarter but warned it was in for a period of slowing demand for server chips.
FCA -1%: S&P REJECTS THE WEDDING WITH GM
The other industrial values are also in negative territory. Fiat Chrysler -1%: Standard and Poor's in a report dedicated to the car industry admits, in line with the thought of Sergio Marchionne, that the intensity of investments in the sector could stimulate a process of consolidation. But it is unlikely, analysts add, that large mergers, which involve high risks, could materialize.
According to S&P, however, the sector will continue to churn out joint ventures targeted by product or geographical area. Collaborations in the development of transmissions and the electric car could also increase, but in the medium term there will not be a risk in the auto industry.
According to the rating agency, the sector will continue to grow in the next two years despite the slowdown in China and the uncertainties related to the Volkswagen scandal. The rating agency has predicted, in fact, an increase in global car sales of +2% for this year and +3% for next year for over 90 million units.
Buzzi's reduction was decisive (-2,5%). Sales also at Finmeccanica (-1,7%).
UNDER PRESSURE MEDIASET. SALES ON TELECOM
Mediaset also fell (-1,8%) despite Crédit Suisse raising its target price to 5,40 euros from 5 euros, confirming the Outperform recommendation. The title is under pressure due to the new developments in the investigation into the assignment of television rights to Serie A matches in the football championship for the period 2015-2018.
Telecom Italia also down (-2,8%). Atlantic -2%.
GENERALI -1,9% AND MANAGED SAVINGS HOLDING DOWN
Minus signs also prevail among the banks: Unicredit fell by 1,6%, Intesa -0,6%, Mediobanca -1,6%. Insurance companies and asset management companies were negative: Generali -1,9%, UnipolSai -0,7%, Mediolanum -2,1%, Azimut -2,3%.
OILS IN FLEXION. POSITIVE ENEL
Oil stocks are also down: Eni -0,6%, Tenaris -0,5%. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said there would be a glut of supply on the market for at least another year. Positive Enel which closes with an increase of 0,3%.
DRUMS PUSHES DIGITAL MAGICS. EQUITA GIVES THE CHARGE TO SALINI
In Aim Italia Digital Magics was highlighted (+7,03%) after the news of the further rise of Tamburi -0,06% which exceeded the relevance threshold of 15% of the capital. Salini Impregilo also did well (+2,04%) after a report by Equita Sim analysts confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 5,35 euros.
