“The Russian economy is about to collapse” e Moscow stops il American journalist: Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich faces up to 20 years in prison in Russia for "espionage." That's the charge, but is there more retaliation behind it after your last article? In fact, the reporter had published earlier this week a report on the slowdown of the Russian economy following the Western sanctions taxes after the invasion of Ukraine last year. The Russian president himself Vladimir Putin, admitted on TV for the first time that international sanctions against Russia could "have negative consequences on the national economy in the medium term".
According to the Russian president, it becomes necessary to "work on domestic demand" to counter Western measures. In his speech, however, Putin praised the country's spirit of adaptation to this new situation. Until now, Putin had always extolled Russia's ability to react and "remain standing" with respect to the sanctions inflicted. Today, however, the Russian president is forced to admit the first signs of weakness. And the situation could be more serious than expected according to Gershkovich's predictions.
In any case, he is the first reporter for an American news organization to be arrested on charges of espionage in Russia since the Cold War and his arrest further fuels the already very high tensions between Biden and Putin.
Why did Russia arrest the American journalist?
Il Federal Security Service (FSB), did not specify when the arrest took place or even provide any evidence to support their accusations, but stated that the American journalist was arrested in the city of Ekaterinburg (Russia), in the Ural Mountains, while trying to obtain classified information “about the activities of one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex on behalf of the Americans”. It is not clear what the agency is referring to, but it appears that the reporter had been working on an article on the operations of the Wagner group, the mercenary company that is fighting alongside the Russian army in Ukraine and which is mainly made up of ex-military men and prisoners who are offered a sentence reduction in exchange for enlistment.
Wall Street Journal: "The Russian economy is about to collapse"
THEarticle by the American journalist states, according to some forecasts, that the Russian economy is "about to collapse". “Russia's government revenues are under pressure and its economy has moved onto a lower growth trajectory, likely in the long term. The Russian government is trying to reconcile rising military spending with subsidies and social spending to protect civilians from hardship. The country's main exports, gas and oil, have lost important customers. Government finances are under pressure. The ruble fell by 20% approximately against the dollar since the beginning of November.” explains the WSJ.
Initially Moscow had resisted the sanctions imposed. Immediately after the outbreak of war, the increase in the cost of gas and oil had brought strong gains to the Russian coffers, thus offsetting the sanctions. Now with the finite earnings effect, the weakness of the Russian economy really showed itself. The Russian government has cut oil production by 5% until June, thanks to the decrease in the price, the production of oil.
The current situation – explains the WSJ – “comes from a bad bet last year by Putin, convinced that he could use Russian energy supplies to limit Western European support for Ukraine. As a result, the government's energy revenues have fallen by almost half in the first two months of this year compared to last year, while the budget deficit has widened. The tax gap it reached 34 billion dollars in those first two months, the equivalent of more than 1,5% of the country's total economic output”.
The current risk for Russia is to become more and more dependent on China. In fact, the losses of the European market and of investors are pushing Moscow dependent on Beijing: “Moscow will become much more inward-looking and overly dependent on China,” is the opinion of Maria Shagina, senior researcher at the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Updated March 30, 2023 at 12:15
