Super-Thursday has arrived with its load of emotions distributed among electoral expectations (vote in Great Britain), political tensions (the Congressional testimony of William Comey, the number one of the FBI fired by Donald Trump) and monetary policy decisions (the directorate of the ECB). But those who expected a quiet vigil while waiting for the events were proven wrong.
Terrorism, first of all, surprisingly hit the "rogue country" in Trump's eyes, Iran, just as the Pentagon was trying to patch up the president's anti-Qatar outing, which puts the American base in the country at risk. the most important in the region. It is not difficult to link the plunge in oil, attributed to the increase in US stocks, also to the new winds of war blowing along the borders between the Sunni world (again thanks to the support of the US administration) and the Shiite world. It is difficult to think that the agreement on the oil production cap will hold up in this situation.
The other big surprise, this time bloodless, comes from Madrid. In less than 72 hours it was decreed the resolution of Banco Popular thanks to the intervention of Banco de Santander (7 billion), subject, however, to zeroing out the shareholders and holders of subordinated bonds (approximately 3,3 billion). A good lesson for doubts, uncertainties and some cunning too many of the Bel Paese. Thus the spread between Spanish BTPs and Bonos increases, returning to the levels of 2012. A slim figure on the eve of the Central Bank's directorate today in Tallinn.
FLAT ASIA, WALL STREET “ABSOLVING” TRUMP
Asian stock exchanges moved little: Tokyo +0,07%. GDP growth in the first quarter was revised downwards to 1% (against +2,2% in the first estimate). Hong Kong +0,19%. Seoul loses 0,2%. Tonight, North Korea launched a series of missiles from the Wonsan base on the east coast of the country, a demonstration of power that seems aimed at the United States, present with their ships in the area.
Positive Wall Street awaiting Comey's testimony, starting at 16 pm Italian time: Dow Jones +0,18%, S&P 500 +0,16%. The Nsdaq advanced 0,36%. From the written note presented the day before by the former FBI chief no sensational news has emerged. Comey confirmed that Trump asked him, as a test of loyalty, not to investigate further the relationship between General Flynn and Russia. In the meantime, yesterday the President chose the new head of the Federal Bureau: Christopher Wray, in 2003 deputy federal prosecutor at the time of George Bush jr.
US STOCKS RISE, OILS COLLAPSE
The dominant note of the session was the sharp decline in the Energy sector, down by 2%: 32 out of 34 stocks in the basket closed in the red after the unexpected increase in US hydrocarbon stocks, clearly above expectations, which interrupted a streak eight weeks of declines. US crude WTI closed down 4,4%, at 46 dollars a barrel. Brent – 3,5%, at $48,3.
In Milan Eni lost 1,9%, Tenaris -1,1%, positive Saipem (+0,9%). For Jefferies (target price at 3,8 from 0,38 euro) the stock should be kept in the portfolio (rating hold). In Paris, Total fell by 0,9%, Royal Dutch Shell -0,6%.
IRAN ACCUSES: SAUDI HAND IN TEHRAN ATTACKS
The situation in the Gulf is always hot. Tehran has accused Saudi Arabia of being the instigator of the terrorist blitz on Parliament and Khomeini's mausoleum which caused 12 victims.
Meanwhile Standard & Poor's revised Qatar's long-term credit rating to 'AA-' from 'AA' putting it on CreditWatch with negative implications. The agency believes that the dispute with Arab countries that have broken ties with Qatar, the only Sunni country on good terms with Iran, will exacerbate the country's external vulnerabilities and could put pressure on economic growth and fiscal parameters.
NEW ECB ESTIMATES: LESS INFLATION, MORE RECOVERY
European stock markets seesawed, under the pressure of events: positive morning thanks to the good news on banks arriving from Spain, afternoon in the red under the pressure of the drop in oil. The day was dominated by the wait for the ECB meeting: according to some rumors, the central bank is preparing to revise its inflation estimate downwards and those on growth upwards for the three-year period 2017-2019 with the new quarterly projections of the staff which will be released today. The euro trades at 1,1258.
FLAT MILAN: IN 2018 GROWTH HOLDED ONLY IN ITALY
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed flat: -0,1%, at 20.739 basis points after reaching a maximum of 20.966. The weakest market was London (-0,62%), cautious on the eve of a vote that doesn't seem obvious. The pound recovers ground, at 1,2957 against the dollar. Theresa May rallied in recent polls ahead of the vote. Frankfurt loses 0,14%; Paris 0,07% like Madrid: in the afternoon Banco de Santander recovered the losses suffered after the announcement of the bailout of Banco Popular.
Italy will grow by 2017% in 1,0 and then slow down to +2018% in 0,8. The estimates contained in the OECD's Economic Outlook confirm the March forecast for 2017, while incorporating a decline for 2018. For the entire euro area, the OECD estimates growth at +1,8% for both 2017 and for 2018. The previous forecast was +1,6% for both years.
THE TREASURY PLACES THE 30 BTP, BUT WITH A DISCOUNT
Eventful day for debt securities, conditioned among other things by the placement of the new thirty-year bond which will detach a coupon of 3,45%, which is growing sharply: the BTP 2047 coupon 2,70%, issued in February last year for 9 billion, in the last reopening from 1,25 billion in the mid-May auctions it was placed at a gross yield of 3,32%. Demand exceeded 23,7 billion euro, of which just over 3 billion came from the consortium of banks entrusted with the mandate to manage the issue (Bnp Paribas, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and UniCredit).
Thanks to the operation, the Treasury reached 51% of the funding envisaged for 2017 (435 billion euro). Funding will continue with next week's auctions: on Monday the Ministry of the Economy will make 6,5 billion 12-month BOTs available to investors, an amount identical to that maturing on 14 June.
Meanwhile, the spread is growing. Yesterday the spread between Italy/Germany ten-year rates widened further, reaching 204 basis points, the highest since 19 April last.
OPULAR EFFECT VANISHES, BANKS WEAK IN CLOSING
Turnaround of the banking sector in the afternoon. Bank stocks, buoyed in the early part of the session by the relief from Banco de Santander's bailout of Banco Popular (-0,88%) took the downward path. The basket of the Italian sector, which had gained an abundant percentage point before 16,30, went negative before closing with a more modest increase of 0,3%.
Stocks closed in no particular order: Intesa -0,4%, Banco Bpm -0,8%, Ubi -0,1%. Good rise for Unicredit (+0,9%) which completed the sale of 32,8% of Banca Pekao to Pzu and Pfr. Terms and conditions remain unchanged and the benefit for the bank on Cet1 is equal to 70 basis points. Carige loses another 2,6% on the eve of the confrontation/clash in the Board. Paola Girdinio, director and member of the Bank's nomination committee, resigned with immediate effect.
Mixed trends also for managed savings: Banca Generali +2,5%, Fineco +1,2%, Azimut -1,8%.
TECH FLIES TO PIAZZA AFFARI: STM AND PRYSMIAN AT THE TOP
Stm stands out among the Milanese blue chips (+3,7%). The company led by Calo Bozotti takes advantage of the positive trend in the sector: on Wall Street, the SOX index of semiconductor manufacturers gains 1,2%, reaching levels it has not seen since September 2000. As regards Stm, the gain from at the beginning of the year it is close to 40%.
Another industrial stock stands out: Prysmian, + 2,7% after the report at the Offshore Wind Energy 2017 conference, confirming the growth in the renewable energy sector.
ENEL, NEW PROMOTION. FERRAGAMO STILL SUFFERS
Positive for Fiat Chrysler (+1%), while Brembo (-1,3%) and Cnh Industrial (-1%) are down. Net decline of Recordati (-1,6%) and Buzzi (-1,5%). Enel gains 0,3%. Oddo Securities raised its target price from 5,05 to 5,25 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. A2A (+0,6%) and Telecom Italia (+0,3%) also made progress.
Ferragamo, on the other hand, was down (-0,68%): Kepler Cheuvreux reduced the target price of the share from 27,5 to 26 euros with a rating that remains hold.
