The most important Stock Exchange, Wall Street, is still missing for the holidays. But there are, on the contrary, hot topics for the autumn recovery after the most serene summer on the Mediterranean since the beginning of the great crisis.
First of all, the deal of the century: today the boards of Verizon and Vodafone will announce the sale of 49% of Verizon Wireless to the US group, a deal that will bring 130 billion dollars into the coffers of the English group (minus taxes, however contained under the 10 billion).
There are many possible implications of the operation which, according to the Financial Times, is worth as much as a Quantitative Esing for the United Kingdom, given the rain of liquidity it could set in motion. For Italy, in addition to the passage into the hands of Vittorio Colao of the 23% of Vodafone Italia held so far by Verizon, the agreement could accelerate the risk of the sector.
In the spotlight Telecom Italia: +9,4% on Friday on the eve of a decisive month, in which Mediobanca and Generali will cancel the Telco shareholders' agreement. The stock was supported by Bernstein's promotion: the American broker raised the rating to outperform with a target price of 1 euro.
THE BULL STARTS AGAIN FROM CHINA
Positive notes come from the East. Given that the attack on Syria is postponed by at least a week, the Asian price lists are up, starting from Tokyo +1,7%. Oil also slowed (wti at 112 dollars a barrel) and gold, at 1392.
Good news, in particular, from China. The PMI index, which measures purchases by business managers, closed up at 51, the highest for 16 months. The HSBC survey, considered more reliable than the official sources, is more cautious: only 50,1, in any case above the boundary between recession and growth.
In Europe, attention will be focused today on relevant macro data: the PMI index of the countries of the Eurozone. and August auto sales.
Relevant news today in Piazza Affari. Italy, first in the world, from today applies a tax on high-frequency trading transactions: every purchase or sale order (even withdrawn or unsuccessful offers) will be subject to a levy equal to 0,02% when they last less than half a second.
The novelty could have significant effects on the volume of transactions and on the liquidity of the market, as well as accelerating the exodus of some operators from the list. But it qualifies as a test of great importance for all financial centres. After the Nasdaq blackout and the injuries of Goldman Sachs and Everbright, the need to put order in super-fast finance has grown, which has now distorted the very concept of risk.
Milan will act as a guinea pig market.
FED, DRAGONS AND SYRIA… THE TRISO OF THE RECOVERY
Dense, as per tradition, the agenda for the week of the return. In the order:
EUROPA
a) Great attention for the ECB summit on Thursday 5 September. Mario Draghi will have to confirm his guidance on low rates after the strong signs of a recovery in confidence and in the eurozone's GDP. Draghi, like Mark Carney of the Bank of England, will have to find the right words to discourage the increase in market rates, which has already manifested itself in "core" Europe and the United States.
b) The key event of the month will be the German elections on 22 September, an obligatory step before tackling the old and new problems of the Eurozone, among which the need to refinance the Greek debt stands out.
c) Finally, the game of the banking union gets underway, preceded by the stress tests of the ECB which are expected to be more severe than in the past.
AMERICA
a) It is mandatory to start with the Syrian chessboard. The times for a possible US attack are lengthening, the unknown factor of oil prices remains.
b) Barack Obama has not only the Damascus dossier on his table. Soon, perhaps as early as this week, the name of Ben Bernanke's successor will be released, as many hope, worried about the uncertainty about the future of the central bank on the eve of the QE curb operation, after three and a half years of expansionary policy . In contention are Lawrence Summers (the president's favorite) and Janet Yellen, Bernanke's deputy, pushed by a broad front, from those who distrust Summers' proximity to the big banks to the pink lobby, which is pressing for a female central banker.
c) The choice of whether or not to give way to tapering, ie the cut in purchases on the Fed's market, will be weighed by the August employment figure due out at the end of the week. The most reliable prediction is that the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for 18-19 next, will opt for a reduction in purchases of between 10-15 billion.
d) It is likely, as Canadian sources anticipate, that an informal G20 summit will be held first to assess the impact of tapering on emerging economies.
AUGUST, THE REVIVAL OF THE "POOR"
It was the August of the rematch. At the top is the Athens Stock Exchange -1,7%, followed, on equal terms, by Milan and Lisbon, both +1,2%. Conversely, the S&P 500 posted a loss of 3,13%.
Also down was the Dax of Frankfurt to its lowest level in seven weeks, as was the Stoxx Europe 600 -0,9% to its lowest level since 17 July, after the sharp decline of the last week (-2,4%).
Emerging markets also showed a slight recovery in the finale, with Brazil and Indonesia in the lead. But in August the decline of currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the Turkish lira was accentuated, a decline that began around May at the first signs of a change of course in the Fed's policy.
Capital flight prompted Brazil's central bank to raise rates and the Indian government took steps to curb capital outflow. All of this did not do the local stock exchanges any good. In August, the BSE500 index of the Mumbai Stock Exchange fell by 4,4%, in addition to an 8,8% devaluation of the rupee against the dollar.
On the government bond front, August saw a surge in yields on the US T bond, which even came close to 3% and on the 1,2-year German Bund: the Bund future fell by 1,90% in one month and the yield rose over XNUMX% in some sessions.
In this context, the BTP yield remained stable at around 4,40%, but the movement of the Bund led the spread down to 253, from 270 at the end of July. However, political instability has produced two consequences: the narrowing of the gap with the Spanish Bonos, who arrived this week just two points behind the ten-year BTPs; the pressure on the biennial Btp, traded at 2%, the maximum value among the countries of the OECD area.
UNDER THE SPOTLIGHTS IN MILAN
Expected sales performance of Fiat -3% in August in Europe, after the lackluster anticipations coming from Brazil, the main market of the Turin group: in August sales of new cars in Brazil in August, up to 29 , show a 17% drop from the all-time high a year earlier to approximately 308.000 units. On the other hand, the US data, which will be communicated on 4 September, should confirm that the threshold of 16 million car sales in one month has been exceeded, a record since 2007.
Also for Pirelli (-2,8%) the data on the Brazilian market will be relevant. Also expectations for oil stocks after Friday's drop (Stoxx of the sector -1,1%). Eni lost 1,5%. in line with the decline in crude oil prices. On the banking front, today the Mps Foundation should sanction the appointment as president of Antonella Mansi, vice president of Confindustria, to replace Gabriello Mancini.
