With the abstention of the two Renzian ministers ("There is no health Mes"), the Council of Ministers approved last night the Recovery Plan, but the D-day of the government crisis is today, even if anything can always happen in politics and therefore it is wise to remember that in these cases one must never "never say never".
After the unexpected intervention with straight leg by Giuseppe Conte, which also displaced the Democratic Party and irritated the Quirinale burying the Conte-ter ("If Renzi slips out, never again a government together", said the premier), everything suggests that today the leader of Italia Viva, Matteo Renzi, will respond in kind, announcing his exit from the government and making the its two ministers, but confirming the vote in favor of both the new health emergency plan and the budget variance linked to the Recovery.
But that's not necessarily how things go Renzi himself has left a glimmer of light: “In the next few hours – he said last night – we will decide whether to remain in the majority” or not, despite leaving the government. And the bridge builders immediately set to work to mend the tear.
But the either-or of Tale has changed the cards on the table and made it clear that, in case of exit from the Government of Iv, he will seek a new majority in Parliament. It is not certain that, without the support of Italia Viva, the numbers are there, but Conte is determined to try, hoping to find the Scilipoti on duty, among whom Mrs. Mastella has already signed up. A perspective latter that the Democratic Party doesn't like it at all, who until the end will try to re-establish relations with Renzi, and even less at the Quirinale, which does not like shaky and improvised majority. This is why it is not excluded that the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, stop the inclined path of the crisis and start a round of consultations to try to mend the lacerations.
However, if Renzi leaves the government (while remaining in the majority) and Conte insists on the either-or, there are at least four possible hypotheses:
- Tale refuses any mediation e asks for Parliament's pronouncement: if he gets the majority he governs without Renzi, but if he loses he leaves the scene;
- in the event Conte does not collect the votes necessary to govern in Parliament, Pd and M5S will try to set up another government (including Renzi) with a new prime minister;
- if a new political agreement cannot be found, the Quirinale could launch an institutional government (with Cottarelli or Cartabia premier) to carry out at least the most urgent commitments (vaccination plan, fight against the pandemic and implementation of the Recovery Plan);
- if the crisis gets out of hand, we go to early elections in early summer and before the blank semester starts, but it is the least probable hypothesis because it is difficult to vote with the pandemic and above all because the main forces of the majority do not want to go to the vote with the risk of giving the government and the Quirinal to the right.
The field is therefore open, but the crisis is closer, even if, unlike yesterday, it is less certain. And even less certain are the final results.
