The takeover bid launched by Edison on 100% of Alerion it is a stone thrown into the pond. A clear signal that the waters that remained motionless for over a year in the wind energy sector are back in motion. And a challenge, launched towards Erg, to gain supremacy in a sector in which the new auctions launched by the government, which will end on November 27, have reopened the game and created new prospects. In addition to the longer-term ones opened by the Paris global climate agreement. In short, there are all the premises to be able to talk about one "war of the wind" the results of which will be verified not only this year but above all in the next ones that separate us from 2020, set by the EU as the key year for the achievement of important green targets.
The challenge for first place
Edison therefore aims, with F2i, to grow in wind power. The deal announced on Wednesday should make her jump to approx 850 Megawatts installed compared to the current 589 Mw. Not too far, therefore, from the approx 1000Mw wind farms that Erg has installed in Italy. "Erg is the leading Italian player in wind energy and will continue to be so, with a further 400 million invested for organic growth in the sector, envisaged in the industrial plan to 2018", CEO Luca Bettonte told FIRSTonline in May. The manager also recalled that before 2015 Erg invested 19% abroad, that now the foreign share is 37% and will eventually reach almost half. Why? "We would also like to invest in Italy - was the explanation - but it is not possible because we have been waiting for the decree that regulates the sector for more than a year". A situation that Bettonte defined as "embarrassing" and such as to put the repowering of the most profitable sites at risk.
Auctions and maneuver 2017
But something seems to have changed. “In fact, after waiting for a year and a half for the decree that reopened a window on the auctions for incentives – says Simone Togni, president of Anev – we must acknowledge Minister Calenda for having launched it immediately after his inauguration at the Mise. And he certainly got the sector back on track after a long period of lockdown. However, the decree on the repowering of wind farms that have reached the end of their life after the first 15 years of activity has not yet arrived. We have been asking the government for some time to facilitate this productive renewal with administrative-bureaucratic facilitations above all, so as not to go through the long authorization process as if it were a matter of ex-novo plants. From a financial point of view, the season of incentives is coming to an end but other concessions, for example in the form of tax benefits, would be desirable. We have also asked for wind repowering to be admitted to the benefits of the super-depreciation envisaged by the budget law that the government is preparing to approve. But we do not know – he concludes – in which direction the ministers will go ”.
A few months from the end of 2016, the new sector decree is still in the making given that the last one, on the basis of which the November reverse auction will be held for 850 new wind MW, concerned the years 2015 -16; it will lapse at the end of the year and leave the next two years uncovered. On the other hand, Calenda has promised the new lines of the national energy strategy for the G7 meeting in April in Sicily and seems willing to keep his word.
A mountain of investments
Meanwhile operators position themselves, also driven by the ambitious environmental objectives agreed in Paris by Cop 21. The Edison group has foreseen in the industrial plan to reach 40% of the energy production capacity from renewable sources (wind and hydroelectric), through organic growth and acquisitions, in the medium term against the current 25%-30%. Up to now we have only seen acquisitions – someone observes – but it is also true that the consolidation on more industrial and less financial assumptions was expected. A global manufacturer like the Danish Vestas, who recently held a seminar in Rome, judges the future of wind energy in the world as "promising" and sees "excellent opportunities" for wind power in Italy driven by public auctions but not only.
More generally, the massive investments in the electricity sector will be concentrated on renewables: second Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Bnef) "in 2040, zero-emission energy sources will constitute up to 60% of the installed capacity for electricity production". The total investments planned to reach the target arrive at 11.400 billion dollars largely (64%) for wind and solar plants. The boost will come from cost reductions: those of wind power are expected to fall by 41% and those of solar by as much as 60%. But still according to Bloomberg, all this will not be enough to achieve the Paris climate objective (to keep global warming below 2 degrees): it would take 212 billion more a year, i.e. another 5.300 billion to be added to the aforementioned 11.400 already estimated. How to get this mountain of money? “It's not a question of money” observe the Bloomberg analysts who instead suggest “interventions to stimulate demand” (for example by shifting the subsidies granted to fossil fuels to renewables) and an acceleration of competition on the electricity market. The first moves of the "wind war" are already an anticipation.
