Watch out for banks in your portfolio. They hurt the heart, word of Gianluca Verzelli, deputy central manager of Banca Akros, a savings surgeon who has a long experience of interventions on high-risk family portfolios. “It often happens to me – she explains – that I find myself faced with unbalanced investments in favor of bank stocks. In Rome, then, it is almost always like this”. The reason? “ When I ask the client, he spreads his arms and tells me: what does he want, I want to stay on something solid. That was probably the case once upon a time. But today the perspective has changed: banks and insurance companies are sectors with a high rate of volatility that must be handled with great care”.
Firstonline – In short, these are not titles for everyone. Starting with Unicredit. Or not?
serin – “My bank is part of the Unicredit placement consortium, so I don't mind if I abstain from specific considerations. But it's no mystery that the fluctuations of these days confirm that the perspective has changed. Now to operate profitably on these securities, which depend among other things on very complex international variables, you have to rely on the care of a professional. Alas, the most wrong attitude is the most widespread: I buy and then, if it goes wrong, patience. I'll leave it there and then we'll see. It is the exact opposite of what needs to be done: today banks and insurance companies are volatile securities that need to be handled by professionals capable of choosing the entry and exit timing”.
Firstonline – In short, stay away from the temptation to make a big splash. As has undoubtedly succeeded in some large operators. In any case, however it turns out, the Unicredit operation is the tip of the iceberg of a world undergoing great change. Or not?
serin – “Definitely. Many things are changing. Others have to change. In the politics of the Foundations, for example. Investments in banks, given the economic situation, risk putting the system's disbursements at risk. It's a phenomenon that has been going on for some time, but what happened in Unicredit as well as the market reaction on the MPS has certainly accelerated the change”.
Firstonline – In which direction?
serin – “It is obvious that there is a problem of balance of the system. The Foundations, out of necessity, will dilute their commitment over time. And, as a consequence, spaces will be created for other members”.
Firstonline – The international component is likely to grow.
serin – “Frankly said, I don't have signs of great interest from foreign groups. With the exception, perhaps, of the French who already have, like Bnp Paribas, a solid Italian base. They may be interested in consolidating their presence. But it doesn't seem to me that the Germans or the British are moving."
Firstonline – Are there Chinese?
serin – “They recently bought a significant stake in a Portuguese company, EDP, which I think is very interesting. I am convinced that they intend to go shopping around the world taking advantage of the fact that today almost everything is on sale. But I don't see why they should choose an Italian bank".
Firstonline – Who can buy, in the end?
serin – “I have a feeling that, in the end, it will be mostly a local game. After all, I think that the horizon from this point of view has really changed: the international vocation, so fashionable in past years, is destined to return. In times of crisis, the first thing to do is to strengthen your presence in your backyard. Also for this reason, I don't see a great deal of attention from foreigners who are not already present in our territory".
Firstonline – But in Italy there is a lack of institutional investors capable of facing challenges of that size.
serin – “But in Italy there is not only Unicredit or Intesa. There is a fabric of smaller banks in which new shareholders can play an important role. It is important, in this light, that the laws are also dealt with. I am thinking of the reform of cooperative banks, but not only”.
Firstonline – In short, the Unicredit cyclone lit the fuse. But the change promises to invest the whole sector.
serin – “It could go like this. I confess that the phenomena of today, by their intensity, indeed by their violence, have taken me by surprise: my generation has not experienced anything comparable. Therefore, it is difficult to predict what will happen”.
Also for this reason, dear savers, stay away from the banks dancers, former synonym of tranquility.
