The leaders of the world's largest defense alliance will gather this week in Madrid for the NATO summit 2022, on the fortieth anniversary of Spain's accession to the Atlantic Alliance. The meeting, to be held from June 28 to 30, is marked this year by the Russia-Ukraine war and the entry of Finland and Sweden. At the top of the agenda also the new strategic concept, which will regulate the actions to be taken between now and the next decade and will replace the one adopted in 2010 in Lisbon. This key document reaffirms the Alliance's values, priorities and tasks; it provides a collective assessment of the security challenges ahead and outlines the political and military tasks NATO will perform to address them.
Il NATO Madrid summit it will see, for the first time in its history, the participation of partner countries from the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East, as well as Sweden and Finland close to joining the Alliance (Turkish veto permitting).
Here are five things to know about the summit that could affect the defense and security priorities of countries not only in the West, but around the world.
NATO plans to strengthen its presence in Eastern Europe
Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine substantially changed the orientation of the “Strategic compass” (Strategic Compass), the action plan to strengthen the defense and security policy European between now and 2030 and which will also lead to addressing the much-debated "increase in defense spending".
Harry Nedelcu, head of policy at Rasmussen Global and head of the Free Ukraine task force, told Al Jazeera that the summit is likely to see the Alliance agree to strengthen its presence on the eastern flank, to enable more integrated land, sea and air operations. So NATO's center of gravity will be eastern.
This is the largest capability build-up since the end of the Cold War and will take High Readiness Forces beyond the threshold of 300 thousand units. NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said so in the press conference to present the summit. “I expect allies in Madrid to single out Russia as the main and most immediate threat to our alliance,” the secretary general added.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NATO strengthened its own presence on the eastern flank adding four battlegroups (in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia). This brings the total number of Battlegroups to eight (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland), now extending from the Black Sea in the south to the Baltic Sea in the north.
NATO Madrid 2022 summit: the accession of Sweden and Finland
In the spotlight of NATO summit 2022, the application for membership of Finland e Sweden. In May, both countries gave up centuries of military neutrality, making a major paradigm shift, and announced that joining the Alliance would be “a step in the right direction” in the face of new geopolitical realities after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But the accession process stalled after the Turkey he accused the Nordic countries of providing support to Kurdish militants (whom Ankara considers terrorists).
During a recent visit to Sweden, Stoltenberg said hard work was being done to resolve the issue "as soon as possible". For this reason, on the eve of the start of the summit, there will be a four-way summit between Türkiye-NATO-Sweden-Finland in the Spanish capital, with the participation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The goal is to overcome the resistance of Turkey, which has the second largest army in the Alliance.
The Madrid summit, however, must not be considered as a deadline, even if an agreement is not reached on the application for membership, it is not certain that it will be the end.
Will Ukraine ever join NATO?
The Kremlin has long criticized NATO's expansion to Eastern Europe. During a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force, where some countries of the Alliance gather to discuss the solutions to be adopted in the event of a crisis, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy said he understood that Ukraine can no longer become a member of NATO .
“For years we have heard of a seemingly open door, but we have also heard that we will not enter it, and these are truths and must be acknowledged,” the Ukrainian president said.
It is certainly much more likely that theUkraine enter the European Union rather than NATO.
For Nedelcu, "the biggest and most powerful way to make Ukraine safe is to ensure that the country is so strong militarily and has a powerful defense industry that it becomes a hedgehog that is impossible to attack".
Who pays the bill? Increase defense spending
One of the major debates among the leaders of the world's largest defense alliance concerns each country's defense spending.
In 2006, alliance members pledged to devote 2% of their gross domestic product to defense. But there has been a division among members over who spends more and the ongoing war in Ukraine has amplified the scope of this debate, even within the countries themselves (as in Italy).
Nedelcu said that more and more NATO members are reaching the 2% threshold. “We have seen countries like Germany increase defense spending after the war. So, at the summit, there will definitely be an emphasis on continuing this trend and making allies seriously commit to increasing their defense spending,” he said.
The China node on the NATO 2022 summit table
At last year's NATO summit, Stoltenberg stressed that “the China is getting closer to the alliance” and said it was important for the alliance to develop a clear and united position towards Beijing.
With the tensions over Taiwan and his friendship with Moscow world balances are at risk. Beijing's growing inclination to show its geopolitical and economic strength worries not only the US, but also NATO itself. Nedelcu thinks Stoltenberg's appeal about the position on China will be amplified in Madrid and that the document that emerges will include "strong" language on the Dragon. But France and Germany - given the major European industrial investments in China - prefer "more measured" references.
“Alliance members will discuss China as a strategic competitor. The question will also arise: what role will NATO seek when it comes to security in the Indo-Pacific, and how will NATO seek to have a say on security in the Indo-Pacific or the Taiwan Strait, given that this is always more related to North Atlantic security?” Nedelcu told Al Jazeera.
Certainly it will not be envisaged to engage the Alliance in operations in the Indo-Pacific, but to maintain the strategic-military supremacy of the West.
