“It is clear that Italy should take sides against Maduro and in favor of Guaidò, which however seems to me to be one figure too weak to last". Giulio Sapelli, former professor of Economic History at the Milan State University, is one of the greatest connoisseurs of the South American world: as soon as he returned from a long journey during which he visited Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico, he granted an interview to FIRSTonline to comment on the situation in Venezuela but not only that: "In the past Washington adopted more military strategies, now it is betting on corruption scandals to destroy the great traditional parties of South America and succeed in installing friendly governments: this is what has just happened in Brazil". From the role of the Vatican ("It will be decisive") to that of Cuba ("other than democratization, it is still an execrable dictatorship"), here are the expert's all-round considerations.
Professor Sapelli, what do you think of the position taken on Venezuela by the Northern League's deputy prime minister and his former pupil Matteo Salvini, against the Maduro regime and in favor of the legitimate self-proclamation of the young opposition leader Juan Guaidò as president?
“Which is a right position and should be officially taken by the Government, also because it is not accompanied by any intention of economic retaliation. However, Salvini should do even more and encourage Vatican mediation, which would be decisive. The Church has always had a certain influence on Latin America, regardless of the fact that Pope Francis is also South American".
Maduro himself asked for the intervention of Pope Francis. Why would that be so decisive?
“The Pope is the only solution to get a man close to Washington to dialogue, as Guaidò actually is, and the military caste that has power in Venezuela. The problem is not just Maduro, Maduro no longer counts for anything, the problem in Venezuela is the leaders of the armed forces who have taken over the country and who control its economic resources".
What do you think of Guaido?
“I know him little, he is a member of the Venezuelan middle class, of the generation that has seen everything collapse. He reminds me a bit of the former Bolivian president, Sánchez de Lozada, a moderate but not very brilliant. The important thing for Venezuela is to get rid of this dictatorship but I don't think Guaido will be the leader of the future. In the course of the transition he will be replaced, he is too weak a figure ”.
Is a US military intervention conceivable, as threatened by President Donald Trump?
"I do not believe. There is the risk that civil war will mount more and more, yes, and that a cold war that in fact already exists will intensify. As known, Venezuela is a strategic country, a major oil exporter that is, however, worked on by the major superpowers, the USA in primis. Russia, China and Iran also have strong interests in Caracas, as had happened in Brazil with Lula and for this very reason the Americans found it convenient to bring him down to make room for Bolsonaro. However, I don't think that Russia, China or Iran will actively intervene in the matter, the third world war would come out of it. They will wait for events to unfold and adjust accordingly."
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The USA is therefore getting its hands back on South America, as the Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galeano recounted and after the failed experiments of the 2000s, from Lula's Brazil to Kirchner's Argentina right up to Chavismo in Venezuela, in an attempt to free itself from the influence stars and stripes?
"Absolutely yes. First of all, the USA in Venezuela wants to break the direct line between Caracas and countries like Russia and China, and then it is no coincidence that they are progressively reducing their ambitions in the Middle East, precisely to regain command of operations in Latin America, as was the case in past. The difference with respect to the past is that previously they fueled conflicts and military dictatorships, but today they aim to disrupt the social balance and historical parties, also making use of the judiciary, as happened in Brazil with Lava Jato. Today the US leverages the issue of corruption to orient South American electorates”.
But this corruption, however, actually took place.
“Of course there is, as there is everywhere. Let us remember, however, that Lula was sentenced to 12 years for a mezzanine, and that the investigation was conducted by a magistrate, Sergio Moro, who today is super minister of justice alongside Bolsonaro. I recently took a trip to South America and also went to Brazil. I visited Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo: I found two cities that were cleaner than in the past, where the situation in the favelas has improved, going from marginality to poverty, which is a step forward. This was thanks to Lula, even if then his dolphin Dilma Rousseff had to come to terms with the International Monetary Fund and hit the middle class, which responded by voting for Bolsonaro. The new president is obviously welcome to Washington, given that he wants to privatize Petrobras and also the agricultural land, which would endanger the Amazon, with all the environmental consequences of the case. However, in Brazil and South America, there is a difference compared to what happened elsewhere”.
What?
“That in Brazil and in other South American countries it was the right, and not the left, that surrendered to the USA. While in Italy we had the 'manettara' left after Tangentopoli, in Brazil we have the right playing that role. That's why I believe that, paradoxically, the left still has a much better future there than in Italy. I bet that Bolsonaro will be just a parenthesis and that Lula's PT will return to power with new impetus. Without Lula, with a new leader, but he will return”.
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Speaking of lefties in South America, one of the last bulwarks of the red wave of the XNUMXs is Evo Morales, president of Bolivia, who however still defends Maduro. Is he making a mistake?
“First of all, for me Morales is not a leftist but an indigenousist, he had even hypothesized a secession between white Bolivia and Andean Bolivia. Of course he is wrong to support Maduro, he is wrong to isolate himself from other South American countries and so openly seek confrontation with the USA ”.
Among the few who still support Maduro there is also Cuba, whose regime is celebrating its 60th birthday in recent weeks and which is attempting a timid attempt to democratize the country. Would the now probable fall of the Chavista dictator weaken Havana's role in the political arena of Latin America?
“There is no attempt at democratization: Cuba remains an execrable dictatorship, which has done immense damage to the left all over the world and to Latin America itself. Castro's revolution was a tragic event. In any case yes, a democratic breakthrough in Venezuela would leave Cuba even more isolated, which receives its oil from Caracas and sends its doctors to work in Caracas”.
Another key country in the Venezuelan question is Mexico, which has recently had a new president, Lopez Obrador: he defines himself as a "left-wing populist" and has assumed a neutral position, like that of Uruguay, calling for new elections but not recognizing the presidency of Guaido.
“Obrador is a statesman and in my opinion he will have an important role in relaunching a social democratic model in Latin America. On the one hand he has been good at mediating with Trump on trade relations between Mexico and the USA, on the other he hopes that there will not be an excess of stars and stripes interference compared to what is happening in Caracas. His seems to me to be a correct position, also considering the welcome that Mexico is granting to refugees from Venezuela. Little is said about the great humanitarian tragedy: millions of people are fleeing to Colombia, Peru, Argentina but also Mexico, which in the past was an absolutely hostile country towards immigrants and which now instead intelligently welcomes them and offers them job opportunities and social integration".
A bit like Angela Merkel did in Europe with the Syrian refugees?
“We say yes, with the difference that between countries that speak the same language, in this case Spanish, it is even easier and more natural for this to happen”.
If it is true that many South American political models of recent years are failing, which experience do you think will prove successful instead?
“I say that we will have a big surprise from Peru, where since 2018 there has been a new president, Martín Alberto Vizcarra, who replaced Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who was also - once again - involved in a corruption scandal. The country is regaining control of its economy, rightly focusing on mineral and oil resources and on light industrialization which I believe will take it far. It is also an interesting laboratory politically because a large center party is growing, an absolute novelty for South America and in my opinion a positive fact. However mind you, the left hasn't failed everywhere: I was also recently in Chile, where the mandate of Michelle Bachelet, a socialist leader who introduced a very advanced welfare system, with instruments such as the minimum wage , causing, for example, in the capital Santiago the poverty rate has dropped to 2%”.
