One has managed to compact its target area, the other has not. The success of Luigi Brugnaro in Venice, compared to the adversary Felice Casson, it is explained as follows.
It is what is obtained fromanalysis of electoral flows between the first and second round made byCattaneo Institute of Bologna.
In that space of time, in fact, the entrepreneur put the turbo on and reversed the outcome of the vote, going from 28,6% (against 38% for the former magistrate) to 53%.
How come? The centre-right, recalls Cattaneo, presented itself with three candidates in the first round: Brugnaro himself (supported by Forza Italia, Popular Area and three civic lists), Gian Angelo Bellati (supported by Northern League, Venetian Independence and two civic lists). and Francesca Zaccariotto (supported by Fratelli d'Italia and two civic lists). However, the call of the union was triggered in the ballot: "The incoming flows to the candidate come from the voters who in the first round had voted for Bellati for 5,0% and from the voters for Zaccariotto for 3,5%". From abstention for the 1%.
The same feat failed in opposition. “casson – writes the political analysis center – failed in its attempt to attract the votes of the Five Star Movement. Only 1,5% of these voters, after having voted for Scano (the candidate supported by Grillo's Movement) choose Casson in the second round, while the outflow from the Movement towards the non-voting area (5,7%). Moreover, the share of voters who pass from Casson to abstention between the first and second round is also substantial (2,6%)”.
In terms of consistency, the center-right area was already superior to its rival from the first round, so it was enough to unite what was previously divided to win. This does not absolve the losing candidate: “the defeat of Casson – concludes Cattaneo – is also imputable to its scarce ability to gather support in the more moderate area and extraneous to the centre-left. As for Grillo's Movement, its reluctance towards any form of electoral alliance was confirmed: the vast majority of its electorate preferred to desert the ballot boxes rather than express a preference for one of the candidates of the two main political alignments".
