It was a radiant dawn. Suddenly a shot rang out. This is the incipit that Snoopy would type on the typewriter (who knows what it is raise your hand). Charlie Brown's famous little dog, sitting on top of his doghouse, should give his best to tell the lightning of the Delta variant in the sky of economic recovery. What will be the effects of further mutation of the virus? Will they curb the rise of supply and demand, until they roll back down again? Will restrictions on the movement of people and their social activities be reintroduced, as has just happened in Spain? Will trust and therefore behaviors be affected? Will economic policies once again be able to counteract any negative spillovers?
Regarding these policies, the ECB is starting to adopt the new inflation target in its decisions: how should this strategic turning point be interpreted? What is the reason for the inflation that now seems to be trotting on in the USA? Will it really remain a temporary phenomenon, or will it be rooted in wage increases and expectations? And how will the FED react? Will the dollar continue to strengthen or is this yet another swing movement? Finally, how will the stock exchanges take it? Will they shrug as usual? Or will they recalculate the future profits of companies?
The Hands of the July economy answer these and other questions. The historic monthly column of economic analysis, which always takes structural changes into account (Tempora mutantur, nos et mutamur in illis, the followers of Martin Luther said in Germany, inspired by Ovid ) and which boasts a vast number of imitation attempts. The hands are made up of four articles: a quick summary; an examination of the real variables (production, employment, turnover, confidence…); the point on inflation, in all its determinants; and interpreting the dynamics of interest rates, exchange rates, and stocks. Starting tomorrow, signed by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi, only on FIRSTonline.
