Share

Does the old saying of Wall Street still apply: "On the stock market, sell in May and stay away"?

The abundant liquidity injected by central banks into the markets shakes the old saying "sell in May and stay away on the stock exchange" until the autumn - On Wall Street the May effect has occurred 23 times out of 34 since 1980: since then in 67% of cases the Stock Exchange performed better from November to April than in the summer, but since 2009 this has only happened once

The massive intervention of central banks after the crisis with the introduction of abundant liquidity into the system has altered the performance of the Stock Exchange even questioning the Wall Street saying "sell in may and go away" (sell in May and stay away) .

According to S&P 500 statistics, from 2009 to today the May effect has occurred only once but since 1980 23 times out of 34. This means that for 67% of cases the market has reported better performances during the November/April period than to the rest of the year. And this advised to enter the Stock Exchange in the autumn and to sell all the securities in the spring.

The all-time high since 1896 was reported by the Dow Jones with a return of 5.2% in the winter months and 1.7% in the summer.
Over time, however, this phenomenon is easing and this year it is likely to disappear. In May, no escape by investors from the stock market is expected, also because of the resumption of mergers and acquisitions in big pharma and telecommunications, the arrival of new freshmen and the return of privatizations and, finally, the possible launch of Quantitative easing to the European are all reasons intended to give oxygen to the Stock Exchange.

The protagonist of this less cyclical nature on the markets was the growing role of central banks which is projected on various sectors, causing greater sector rotation and therefore enriching investors' portfolios.

Already from the next few days it will be better understood whether one of the old stock market certainties is destined to vanish or not and whether it is better to stay on the stock market, as well as in autumn and winter, also in summer.

comments