Game over? The attack on Trump closes the games for the US presidential elections in November in favor of Trump? For the political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte, a great connoisseur of American reality, it is very likely that this is the case. At least in the short term and also because the attack took place in Pennsylvania, one of the key states, where "an emotional wave that shifts even a few votes can make the difference" to Trump's advantage. Of course we'll have to see how Trump will move between now and November and an accentuation of polarization could give rise to a desire for moderation and normality in favor of the Democrats. But if already before the attack the weakness of Biden favored Trump, now even more so, unless the Democrats find the opportunity to nominate an attractive person in Biden's place who can reopen the race for the White House. But here is the interview given by Professor D'Alimonte to FIRST online.
Professor D'Alimonte, you know the American reality very well: after the attack on Trump, game over for the presidential elections? Can it be considered a watershed moment in the electoral campaign?
“It could be especially so if Biden does not withdraw. It is very likely that the attack will generate an emotional wave in favor of Trump. Among other things, the way he reacted served to highlight his energy and promptness even more compared to Biden. Furthermore, the attack took place in Pennsylvania which is one of the key states, what Americans call the 'battleground states'. Without Pennsylvania it would be very difficult for Biden to win and here an emotional wave that moves even a few votes can make the difference."
In your opinion, is the dynamics of the attack completely clear or does it leave some doubts that deserve to be explored further?
“The doubt is related to safety. It's incredible that a sniper was able to lurk at close range without anyone noticing. Having said that, I don't think there are any elements at the moment that could suggest a conspiracy involving other people."
After the attack, will even voters who are uncertain about the November vote move closer to Trump or can the climate of violence, stigmatized by Biden, strengthen the American people's need for normality and tranquility and give the Democrats some more hope?
“I already said when answering the first question that the attack tends to favor Trump. This is practically certain in the short term. Then we will have to see how it will be managed by Trump himself and his opponents during the electoral campaign. It is true that Democrats can exploit the argument that the climate of violence requires that the president elected in November be a less divisive personality than Trump. But it's a difficult topic to use effectively. But if Trump were to use the attack to accentuate polarization in the country instead of mitigating it, then the issue of moderation could gain weight, especially among independent voters."
How will the attack affect the Democrats' unease? Now is Biden even weaker at home or a little stronger and what are his chances of remaining a candidate for the White House?
“The polls will decide. If the polls show a shift in votes in favor of Trump, the pressure on Biden will increase and it will be difficult for him to resist. If Biden withdraws and the Democrats find a way to replace him, without too many internal conflicts, the presidential election game could be reopened with an attractive candidate. At that point we would be faced with the paradox that the attack, instead of benefiting Trump, could damage him. Even before the attack on Trump it was convenient to have Biden as an opponent, after the attack even more so."
