Immediately after Thanksgiving, the US opens the shopping season, an event that always has a significant impact on the US economy. As is known, celebrated on Thursday, November 28 with the traditional turkey the Thanksgiving, On Friday 29th US consumers will be dedicating themselves to Black Friday and then get to Cyber Monday.
Consumer behavior is also closely followed by the Fed in its interest rate policy, given that the best before date represents the 68% of US GDP, with goods contributing 23% and services 45%. consumer confidence Americans recently showed positive signals, with the index of the conference board which reached 111,7 in November, beating the consensus expectation of 111,3 and the revised October figure of 109,6, reversing a trend that had been evident until a few months ago. All this
According to the annual survey published by the National Retail Federation, a record of 183,4 million people plans to make purchases in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday of this year. This data surpasses previous record of 182 million in 2023 and represents an increase of 18,1 million people compared to five years ago, in 2019. However, spending is starting to reflect greater consumer attention. After strong growth in 2022 (+5,1%) and 2023 (+9,3%), 2024 records an increase of only +0,8%, the report says.
Despite the complex context, the average American consumer appears to be in a position top than you might think. As he states Laura Albert, Williams-Sonoma Chairman and CEO: “It’s really hard to know exactly what’s happening to the consumer, but our view is that it’s probably if they are doing a little better than everyone thinks". This optimistic view is also shared by Walmart, which highlights: “US customers remain resilient, with behaviors largely flat over the past four to six quarters. They continue to seek value to maximize their budgets.”
Black Friday is the favorite among US consumers, Cyber Monday is the second
Il Black Friday continues to be the favorite time for Americans to go shopping, although consumers are expected to spread their purchases across more channels during the holiday weekend of as many as five days. According to estimates, 72% of American consumers (equal to 131,7 million people, in line with 2023 expectations) intends to take advantage of the offers both online and in physical stores. In particular, about two-thirds (65%) of Black Friday shoppers intend to shop specifically in stores, taking advantage of on-site promotions. The Cyber Monday, on the other hand, ranks second in popularity, attracting 39% of consumers (equal to “only” 72,3 million), mainly concentrated on online purchases thanks to digital discounts.
According to the Adobe Forecasts, online sales this holiday season will hit a record high 241 billions of dollars, with a growth of 8,4% compared to 2023. In particular, sales from mobile devices will represent 53,2% of the total, equal to 128 billion dollars.
Consumption will almost reach the trillion dollar mark
If we then go beyond this intense weekend and embrace the entire winter season, Christmas included, analysts see another spending increaseAccording to the National Retail Federation (NRF), holiday spending is expected to reach record levels, and with a growth estimated between 2,5% and 3,5%, for a total between $979,5 billion and $989 billion, almost a trillion.
Toys, video games and electronics most searched
Purchases are seen to be concentrated mainly on toys, video games and electronics, with particular demand for Bluey toys, Call of Duty, Black Ops 6 and Bluetooth headphones. In detail, the most popular gift categories this season include: clothing (54%), gift cards (44%), toys (36%), books, video games and other media (31%) and food/sweets (30%). In addition, there is an increase in the use of payment methods advantageous “buy now, pay later” deals, with spending expected to reach $18,5 billion during the season, peaking at $993 million on Cyber Monday alone.
The tough competition with Temu and Shein and the “key words”
The dominance of clothing among consumer preferences has pushed fast fashion platforms such as Temu and Shein to step up their investments. According to Reuters, the huge online marketing spending by these companies is making more expensive for other retailers and brands reach consumers during Black Friday.
Both platforms are in fact aiming at keyword used by competitors. In the US, for example, Temu bid on terms such as “Walmart Black Friday deals,” “Black Friday Kohls,” and “Bed Bath Beyond,” while Shein targeted “Walmart clothes,” “Zara jeans,” “Mango dresses,” and “Nordstrom Rack shoes.” cost per click p“Walmart clothes,” for example, increased 16-fold from August 2022 to August 2024. This aggressive strategy has led to increased online advertising costs, making it more difficult for other retailers to compete effectively during key events like Black Friday.
Retail Companies Listed on the Stock Exchange: Who Wins and Who Loses
Looking at the main ones player on the stock exchange of the sector of Fast Fashion Retail a strong polarization is noted among growing companies e others in difficulty, reflecting the dynamics of a highly competitive and rapidly evolving market, says Gabriel Debach, Italian market analyst at eToro. “When you look at the data, it's clear that some companies have capitalized on industry trends and changes in consumer behavior, while others have lagged behind, suffering from margin pressure and the rise of new digital competitors,” says Debach.
Abercrombie & Fitch stands out as one of the undisputed leaders, with an impressive growth in Total Return Ytd (+68%) and a cumulative increase over five years of 811%, all accompanied by a solid growth in revenues (+19.5% Cagr) and robust and growing operating margins (Ebit margin of 14.82%). This performance demonstrates an effective strategic repositioning, with a strong focus on branding and careful operational management.
The Fast Retailing, the giant behind Uniqlo, confirms itself as a significant player, with a 5-year Total Return growth (+140%) and an Ebit margin of 16%, benefiting from a solid presence in Asia and a business model that values efficiency.
However, not all companies in the sector show the same dynamism. H & M, Despite its global relevance, it recorded flat revenue growth (-0.4%) and a loss in 5-year Total Return (-1.32%), signaling difficulty in adapting to market changes. Also Asos suffers from serious inefficiencies, with declining revenues (-18% Cagr) and a negative Ebit margin (-11.4%), highlighting increasing pressure from competition from online operators such as Temu and Shein. Another example of an operational challenge is represented by Zalando which, despite having a positive total return (+33.57%), saw a significant contraction in Total Return over five years (-27.56%).
Among the positive surprises, there are companies like Victoria's Secret, which showed a Total Return Ytd of +43.14%, despite flat revenue growth (-0.7%). The discounted and off-price sales sector continues to perform well, with players such as Ross Stores, which combines stable growth (+8.5% Cagr) with a solid operating margin (12.2%). This shows that consumers, under inflationary pressure, tend to prefer retailers that offer value.
In the US retail landscape, attention to value emerges as the winning strategy to deal with an increasingly attentive and selective consumer. Walmart, with an impressive Total Return YTD of +73%, has reached all-time highs, benefiting from the strength of its food offerings and consumer loyalty. This resilience is not accidental, but the result of a model capable of responding to the basic needs of customers, who, in a context of inflationary pressures, find in Walmart's proposals a combination of convenience and quality that is difficult to replicate.
On the other side of the spectrum, Kohl's Corp remains one of the most obvious disappointments of 2024, with its shares dropping by -44% YTD, bringing it back to price levels not seen since 2020. The cut in its full-year sales forecast highlights the failure of its recovery attempts, demonstrating how retailers focused on middle-income consumers are finding it increasingly difficult to retain a customer base oriented towards more agile and value-focused competitors.
Target, despite recording a -9% decline YTD, still manages to attract consumers attentive to offers, but the cut in earnings forecasts has weighed on its shares, which have lost more than 20%. In this context, the CEO of Target underlines: “Consumers tell us that their budgets are still limited and that they are shopping carefully… but they are still willing to spend when they find the right combination of novelty and value.”
The best buy, which is up a modest 14% YTD, faces challenges as shoppers continue to postpone discretionary spending in anticipation of seasonal discounts. This dynamic highlights the challenge for retailers focused on technology goods, which are less resilient than essential goods in times of economic uncertainty.
