Since 2006, the USA, the UN and, subsequently, the EU have adopted a series of restrictive measures against Iran, aimed at discouraging the country's nuclear programme. Between 2008 and 2012 the picture was progressively tightened. Self the first sanctions adopted included the freezing of the assets of some Iranian companies and restrictions on certain financial and commercial transactions, mainly related to the oil & gas sector, in 2012 the EU imposed a ban on the transfer of funds between EU banks and local credit and financial institutions. In turn, the US has extended trade restrictions to the automotive (the main local employment sector after energy) and naval sectors, also extending financial restrictions to banks transacting in Iranian rials. Although the approved sanctions are still in force, the main sanctioning countries have agreed on a plan for the progressive easing of countermeasures in the light of Iran's commitment to reduce the nuclear plan.
From the data published in the latest SACE focus, between 2000 and 2013 Iran imported goods for an annual average of around 38 billion euros. In this scenario, Italy holds an average market share of 4,6%. In the period prior to the sanctions (2000-2005), Italian exports to Iran grew at a faster rate than Iranian imports from the world (23,5% compared to 17,8%), with a consequent increase in market share for Made in Italy (6,9% on average).
Iran's trade has been affected by the sanctions applied. With the first wave of 2006, imports continued to expand, albeit at a progressively slower pace. And if until 2010 there was a fluctuating but still positive trend in sales, exports started declining from 2011, reaching contraction rates of 25% in 2012 and 2013. However, Italian exports have already suffered negative effects from the first phase of the sanctioning process (-19% in 2006). The sanctions have cost Italy a loss of over 15 billion since 2006, of which over 60% accumulated in the period 2011-2013 alone. This estimate is obtained by assuming a growth in exports at an average annual rate of 10%, or with an intensity equal to half that observed in the pre-sanctions period 2000-2005. In this sense, almost 16 billion in exports will be lost between 2014 and 2016. Mechanical engineering, which makes up more than half of Italian exports to Iran, is the most affected sector, having lost over 11 billion since the beginning of the sanctions, of which 7 billion in the last three years alone. A remaining 30% of exports is represented by metals, electrical equipment and chemicals, which since 2006 have recorded overall losses of almost 2 billion. Here then is that, in the scenario up to 2016, the four main sectors will record losses of 13,7 billion.
In a recent report by National Iranian American Council (NIAC) one was published estimate of the losses deriving from the sanctions for the USA, in terms of lost exports with Iran. The analysis is based on an alternative and little debated point of view, namely that of the effects deriving from sanctions on those who impose them rather than on those who suffer them. According to these estimates, in the period 1995-2012 the potential loss for US exports would fluctuate between 135 and 175 billion dollars. According to the study, the losses are also significant for Europe. Exports from EU markets fell by 52% between 2010 and 2013. The greatest contraction was recorded for investment goods, in particular machinery and means of transport, whose exports have decreased by 68% since 2010. And projecting the dynamics that Italian exports would have in the absence of sanctions over the next three years, it would be possible to record sales of over 19 billion euros, compared to the 3 billion that would instead be achieved if it persisted the penalty regime.
In November 2013 USA, UK, Germany, France, Russia, China and Iran signed an agreement in Geneva (Joint Plan of Action, JPA) which envisages the implementation by the Iranian government of some political and economic measures over a period of 6 months (from 20 January to 20 July 2014) with positive effects in terms of increased exports. However, the still volatile international context does not provide incentives for new investments in the country for the moment, despite the fact that the perception of risk by international operators is improving. The achievement of the agreement could translate into only a moderate increase in oil exports (currently stuck at 1,4 million barrels per day), with a relatively modest impact, therefore, on the global economy. Despite that, the growth path of the Iranian economy is already positive: assuming a further easing of sanctions, a 2% GDP growth rate is expected for 2014-15, a stronger currency and more moderate inflation. According to estimates published by SACE, the price of oil for 2014-15 could settle at 105-110 dollars a barrel. And an increase in foreign demand could therefore translate into a growth in Iranian exports.
