The latest edition of the index NFIB, which measures the economic expectations of small and medium-sized enterprises, shows a climate of very moderate optimism on the American economic cycle.
The index, in fact, has risen 94,5 from the previous one 92,5, exceeding the expectations of analysts, who predicted a measurement equal to 92,9.
Despite the improvement, there is no real leap forward, given that in the SME sector the increases recorded are the same as a year ago. In summary: growth yes, but a very moderate pace.
On the employment front, the surveys have revealed a discrete trend towards the creation of new jobs: 47% of business owners have hired or attempted to hire new staff in the past three months, while the 34% he renounced it as it was not possible to find, on the market, the workforce qualified to fill the open positions.
This data summarizes one of the most significant problems of long-term unemployment: workers who remain out of the market for many months, or even years, are less competitive and not professionally updated, generating difficulties in the so-called "matchingbetween labor supply and demand.
Nonetheless, the data indicates reassuring employment prospects in the coming months, as also recorded last week, when the unemployment rate fell 8,2% to 8.1%.
In April, the seasonally adjusted percentage of entrepreneurs willing to hire is increased by 5%, a fact that confirms the – timid – tendency to create new jobs.
On the side of the capital expenditure, the frequency of new disbursements, as a percentage, grows in April al 54%, ten points above the minimum (reached in 2010), but still below the pre-crisis average (60%). Substantially, companies tend to spend more, but under the banner of "ordinary maintenance” rather than the creation of a large additional stock of fixed assets.
Le sales remain the main concern of American SMEs: the 19% of firms cited weak domestic demand as their primary problem, a historically high figure even if almost halved compared to 38% achieved in the most difficult days of the financial crisis.
On the side of profits and sales, US SMEs celebrated excellent results in April: increased by11% the cases of companies that closed the month with profits. This allows companies to finance new hires and capital expenditures to finance business expansion.
Il credit crunchfinally, it seems to no longer bite the economy of companies with fewer than 500 employees: only 3% of entrepreneurs cited financing as the primary difficulty in running the business.
In the context of modest sectoral optimism, there is no shortage of shadows: as confirmed by the indexes published during the day (Redbook down 1,3% on a monthly basis, index IBD on rising consumer confidence 0,5%), the operators' expectations remain only slightly bullish, and the uncertainty on the political-fiscal-energy front – but above all of the European situation – is still significant: 2012 will not be a year of strong recovery, but of a gradual thaw.
