The US economy grew by 3,6% in the third quarter, as shown by the interim revision of the figure released by the Commerce Department (the final figure is expected next month). It is the most sustained growth since the first quarter of 2012. The first estimate spoke of a growth of 2,8%. Analysts for today's figure were expecting growth of 3,2%. Their domestic product increased by 2,5% in the second quarter.
To determine the upward revision, precisely with the most sustained growth since the beginning of 2012, are above all company inventories, which contributed 1,68 percentage points to the growth in the third quarter (the first estimate spoke of 0,83 points). Excluding the change in inventories, GDP grew by 1,9%.
There is also caution regarding the trend in consumption in the coming months, when the political battles in Washington will resurface, which could weigh on the economy. The report offers a cross-section of the state of health of the American economy in the months that preceded the "shutdown", the federal paralysis that began on October 1 and lasted 16 days. The more sustained growth than expected reflects precisely the willingness of companies to replenish stocks in view of future purchases, but also an increase in spending by state and local governments.
From the data it emerges that consumer spending, which represents two-thirds of GDP, grew by 1,4%, the lowest in over three and a half years: Americans have spent less on long-lasting goods, such as cars, and have reduced spending on services. The personal consumption expenditure index, the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for monitoring inflation trends, grew by 2%, with the "core" figure (net of energy and food prices) rising by 1,5%, below the 2% considered optimal by the American Central Bank.
State and local government spending rose 1,7%, the sharpest gain since 2009. Americans continue to spend heavily on real estate: Fixed-income investments in residential grew 13%, and by twelfth quarter in a row. Non-residential investments also increased, up 3,5%.
