For Moody's, the triple A rating on US sovereign debt "remains in place", assures Steven Hess, an analyst at the rating agency. The forecasts to which he refers speak of a "debt/GDP ratio" which "will reach a peak of 75% in the middle of the next 10 years and then begin to decline in the long term". Last week's agreement - continues Hess - suggests that an agreement on the reduction of the deficit before 2013 "is difficult due to the strong political polarization, but not impossible". However, the deadline is what matters most in Moody's judgment, since the agency, as it announced today, does not exclude the possibility of a downgrade to that date, if the balance sheet and economic estimates should weaken further.
At least for the moment therefore, Moody's opinion on the US situation remains distant from that expressed by Standard and Poor's with the rating cut, and the main difference between the two agencies can be traced back to the different assessment they offer with respect to the capacity of the class US policy to agree on spending cuts.
