Although the economic recovery in the US is proceeding with difficulty, there is a very important element that could restore consumer confidence and, consequently, vigor to the whole economy: the ongoing rebound in the housing market, considered the primary source of the global crisis, after the peak of the speculative bubble, in mid-2006, and the chain reaction triggered by subprime mortgage rates.
This recovery in the housing sector is described in a note on the US real estate market by Jacco de Winter of ING Investment Management which shows how the economic data are clearly on the rise, such as sales which, in August, grew by 7,8% compared to the previous month, while the percentage of forced sales decreased, from 31% last year to the current 22%, as did the days spent on the market for properties, down 70 days from 92 last year and the index developed by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) reached a six-year peak in September.
Much, then, will depend on the possible improvement of the labor market. Also important in this sense is the announcement that the Fed will buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities every month until the outlook for the labor market has "substantially" improved.
Another positive figure is the decline in the rate of vacant homes (for homes for sale), to 2,1% in the second quarter, and that of vacancy (for homes for rent), to 8,6%. % still in the second quarter, at levels close to those of 2002.
The recovery of the real estate market, which can naturally prove to be a significant stimulus for the entire US economy, giving rise to a virtuous circle between confidence and growth, is however a very slow process, and before the alarm goes off and the market in any case, we will have to wait at least until the fourth quarter of 2013.
