Mixed data from the US economy: the trend of GDP in the fourth quarter was revised from +3,2 to +2,4% (in line with analysts' expectations), while the consumer confidence it recorded a higher-than-estimated increase in February (from 81,2 to 81,6 points). THE compromises on existing homes, however, increased less than expected in January (+0,1%).
In general, the markets have shown that they appreciate the numbers, allowing Wall Street to open in positive territory: at 16 pm Italian the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and the S&P30 each gained around half a percentage point.
GDP
The interim revision of the GDP data released today by the Commerce Department (the final one will arrive next month) is in line with analysts' forecasts and lower than the preliminary estimate, which spoke of an increase of 3,2%. In the third quarter the figure had grown by 4,1%, while in the second the increase had been 2,5%.
In the second half of 2013 growth was 3,7%, more than double the +1,8% in the first part of the year. For the whole of 2013, the growth is 1,9%. The last time the economy grew by at least 3% on an annual basis was 2005 (+3,4%), while in 2012 the expansion was 2,8%.
The strong expansion in the third quarter raised hopes that 2013 would end at a faster pace, paving the way for a 2014 of faster job creation and wage growth. The GDP revision is not far from the estimates of the Federal Reserve, which forecasts increases of between 2,8 and 3,2% for the current year. The same goes for Wall Street economists, who are not expecting growth above 2014% for 3.
However, today's data showed that the economy held up despite the budget battles that characterized the end of 2013 and was not unduly affected by the 16 days of federal gridlock in October, even as businesses and consumers were forced to revise some spending decisions.
The driving force was in particular the increase in consumer spending (+2,6%, less than the initial estimate of +3,3%). Exports also did well, increasing by 9,4% (less than 11,4% in the first estimate). It should also be noted that companies increased expenses by 7,8% (more than 3,8% in the first estimate), in particular by increasing investments in machinery.
CONSUMER TRUST
As for consumers, according to calculations by the University of Michigan, the final data on confidence increased to 81,6 points in February, from 81,2 in the preliminary mid-month estimate. The figure at the end of January was 81,2 points. The index is better than the 81,2 points expected by analysts.
The sub-index that measures confidence in the current conditions of the economy rose from 94 to 95,4 points, while the one that measures confidence in future conditions fell to 72,7 points from the previous 73.
One-year inflation expectations stood at 3,2%, from 3,3% in mid-month, while five-year expectations remained unchanged at 2,9%.
COMPROMISE EXISTING HOMES
Existing home tradeoffs in the US edged up in January, following a sharp decline in December. The data, released by the sector association National Association of Realtors, marked an increase of 0,1%, to 95 points. It was the first increase since June, but analysts were expecting a 1,4% increase. The December figure had dropped by 8,7%, to its lowest since November 2011. Lastly, on an annual basis, the index recorded a drop of 9%.
According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Nar, "the bad weather conditions and the reduction of affordable housing weighed on the figure". As for the individual regions, in January compromises grew by 3,5% in the south-east of the country and by 2,3% in the north-east, while they fell by 4,8% in the western part and by 2,5% in the Midwest.
