- United States grow, even if less than expected, and the default it is a “remote” perspective. However, if it were to become reality, it would have "devastating" effects on the world economy. This is what the International Monetary Fund writes in the update of the "World economic outlook" released today.
"The effects of any impossibility to repay the debt would be felt very far, leading to potential financial market dysfunctions - said the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard - We consider it a remote risk, a low probability risk, but if it were to materialize there would be serious consequences.” Blanchard then added that the temporary closure of US federal offices will have limited consequences if it is not prolonged, but otherwise it could dent the recovery of the world's largest economy.
The part of the report dedicated to the USA points out that US GDP is expected to grow by 1,6% this year and 2,6% next. Forecasts revised downwards by 0,1% and 0,2% respectively compared to the estimates released in July.
The American recovery benefits in particular from the rebound in the residential real estate market and from a growing net worth available to households, underlines the Fund, specifying however that the more stringent fiscal conditions that entered into force in May have inevitably slowed down the recovery of economic activity .
As for unemployment, it should remain little moved: at 7,6% this year and 7,4% in 2014, against 8,1% in 2012.
