Negotiations continue in Washington to avoid the "fiscal cliff". US President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner are desperate for a compromise, but for the moment the situation remains in stalemate. And time is running out: to prevent the 2013 US accounts from ending up in the red, it is vital that an agreement is found before the end of the year. The Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, believes it will difficult to reach an understanding before Christmas, but guarantees that when the two parties sign the pact "they will be able to proceed very quickly".
The Obama administration's latest proposal is to obtain tax revenues of 10 trillion dollars over the next 1.400 years. The sum was reduced by 200 billion compared to the initial hypothesis to try to convince i Republicans, but the cut was not enough: the conservatives define the plan "unacceptable" and ask to go down to 800 billion. A proposal already rejected by the White House.
Obama for his part does not back down and continues to insist on the points least appreciated by his opponents, such as the increase in infrastructure spending and the new powers to be conferred on the administration to raise the public debt ceiling.
Despite everything, to the microphones of ABC News, the President said he was optimistic, suggesting that in the end the agreement will arrive.
Il “fiscal cliff” (literally, "fiscal cliff") consists of the combined effect of two measures which - without a new law intervention - will automatically take effect in January.
The deadly combination is a traditional recipe for austerity: tax increases (with the expiry of various tax bonuses) and spending cuts (welfare excluded). Recessionary effects are inevitable: GDP would drop by 0,5% next year and unemployment would return to over 9% (today it is 7,9%).
In political practice, the real problem is the rift that since January 2011 has paralyzed the action of Congress, divided between the Democratic Senate and the Republican Chamber. A stalemate confirmed by the last presidential elections.
Meanwhile, from Moody's dark omens are coming. The rating agency, which published its forecasts for 2013 in the report "US Macro Outlook 2013: Poised for Liftoff", believes that the United States will temporarily fall into the fiscal climate. At that point, the trust of companies and consumers will fail, but the resulting political tensions will finally make an agreement possible. According to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's, fiscal issues will continue to slow down the growth of the American economy, which however should recover within the second half of next year, mainly thanks to the recovery of the private sector.
