Let's say it right away. We have never witnessed in the past such an astral conjunction that produced a simultaneous “regime change” on both sides of the Atlantic. A divisive vote in America is splitting the country in two today with expected repercussions on the international scene, especially for a possible solution to the two large crisis areas in Ukraine and Israel. In the same hours the European Union, led until December by one of the countries closest to both Trump and Putin, namely Viktor Orban's Hungary, will bring together the European heads of state and government in Budapest on Thursday competitiveness and immigration.
Germany: Tax cuts split government
As if the two great engines of European integration were not enough, namely France and Germany look like “lame ducks” incapable of shouldering much of the burden of Europe's relaunch. In Germany, the shaky coalition led by the Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in fact grappling with a government crisis after a document was made public on Friday in which the Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democratic Party, outlined a plan for tax cuts and fiscal discipline in stark contrast to the setup set up by the Greens' Economy Minister Robert Habeck. Scholz is trying to defuse the mine by meeting with both Lindner and Habeck, but many observers fear the government is on the brink of collapse. Lars Klingbeil of Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) party admitted that yesterday "will be a week of decisions" for the future of the German government.
Moldova: Pro-European Sandu's Victory Gives Hope
The only note of hope comes from Moldova where the pro-Western president Maia Sandu has been re-elected in the second round of the elections with 55,4% of the vote, beating his rival Alexander Stoianoglo of the pro-Russian Socialist Party, who is at 44,6%.
The head-to-head was necessary after the incumbent failed to secure an absolute majority in the first round two weeks ago, when the votes of Moldovans living abroad made the outcome uncertain. “It takes rare strength to overcome the challenges you faced in these elections,” the Commission president tweeted. Ursula von der Leyen addressing Sandu. In short, Moscow's pressure which worked in Tbilisi by influencing the elections in Georgia did not overwhelm the Moldovans' demand for Europe.
It's US Election Day: The Effects on Europe
All eyes are now on Washington and the American vote results that will have direct effects on the European Union in terms of security and trade. John Bolton, Donald Trump's former national security adviser, has already made it known that the Republican candidate, if re-elected, could withdraw the United States from NATO leaving Europe to fend for itself in its confrontation with Russia.
Europe may then find itself facing a two-front trade war: with China and Washington that with Trump threatens to apply duties of up to 20% for products exported to the USA. The former European Commissioner for Industry, Thierry Breton fears a “deadly crisis” if Trump wins while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk calls on Europe to ask itself a different question. “Some say that the future of Europe depends on the US elections, when it depends first and foremost on us,” Tusk tweeted. It is time, Tusk added, for “Europe to finally grow up and believe in its own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”
The fact remains that, by a twist of fate, the elections in the United States will close just as the EU leaders will be taking planes and trains to reach Budapest, where the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will host a meeting of the European Political Community, followed by an informal summit of EU leaders focused on competitiveness that Orban could turn into a sort of “circus” in the event of a Trump victory.
Europe Towards a New Executive. Fitto at Risk?
While America is voting, Europe tries to start the engines of the new executive von der Leyen with a series of hearings of the Commissioners-designate to allow the new Commission to take up its duties on 1 December next. Despite some criticism from the Greens, Liberals and Socialists, the EPP's dominance in Parliament and the pre-hearing consultations would have Italian Raffaele Fitto has been put to bed and the Hungarian Varhelyi from possible rejections because this would also lead to reprisals on the front of the commissioners appointed by other political families.
But the conditional is a must. Yesterday, the co-president of the Greens in the European Parliament, Terry Reintke, in a briefing together with the other co-president of the group, Bas Eickhout, announced “particular attention to the commitments” of the commissioners designated "on respect for the rule of law, democracy, fundamental rights and the implementation of the Green Deal. We will judge on this". "With regard to the evaluation process, there are – Reintke said – two controversial personalities: one is the Hungarian Commissioner-designate, largely because of the role he has played in the last five years, but also because of the government that appointed him, which shows no respect for the European Parliament; and it remains to be seen whether Varhelyi will be able to work on the issues that have been assigned to him,” namely Health, along with animal welfare. “We are very, very sceptical, and I think it is quite unlikely that we will vote for him”
“And then, of course Raffaele Fitto, the Italian candidate” to the executive vice-presidency of the Commission with competences on Cohesion and reforms. “We understand – continued the co-president of the Greens – that Italy and Hungary must each have a commissioner, the EU Treaty provides for it, but we have many Doubts about portfolio and skills that have been assigned to Fitto”, with a role “that does not reflect the majority that supported von der Leyen”, when she was re-elected in July for a second term as Commission President. “And that is why we are rather sceptical about the position she has as Executive Vice-President, and we will push to change something about it“, Reintke concluded.
In the confirmation hearings of the commissioners designated with Raffaele Fitto, the EPP will be honest and will consider iton par with the other candidatesThe EPP leaders who participated in the negotiation of the nomination package (Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitsotakis) confirmed to the leaders of S&D and Renew (Olaf Scholz, Pedro Sanchez and Emmanuel Macron) that all elements of the package must be respected.
The hearings
Yesterday the hearings with the designated commissioner for the international trading, the Slovak Maros Sefcovic very close to Prime Minister Robert Fico who is currently in Beijing on what he called the “trip of the year”. In a pointed question, Slovak opposition MEP Miriam Lexmann (EPP) asked Šefčovič what his stance is towards China given that Fico advocates “a strategic partnership with a totalitarian state”. Slovakia is one of only five countries to vote against EU tariffs on electric cars and Fico hopes to transform his country’s fossil-fuel-based car industry into an electric car pioneer. Answering in Slovak, Šefčovič sidestepped the man who nominated him for the job and did not mention Fico once. Instead, he doubled down on the technocratic side of his future role, stressing that the EU has many tools to deal with China’s unfair practices.
“We have the tools to control incoming investments. We have the ability to control subsidies,” Šefčovič said. He added that “we realize that the China is the second largest economy“, implying that the country cannot be ignored but stressing that its size is largely a reason for “address these problems” of unfair practices.
Il Malta's Commissioner-designate for Intergenerational Equity, youth, culture and sport Glenn Micallef faced the so-called "grill" yesterday trying to make amends for his inexperience as the youngest in the constituency and for the fact that he was proposed almost as a challenge from his government despite the Commission's requests to send a female candidate.
The Luxembourg Commissioner-designate for the'Christofer Hansen agriculture Instead, he had to answer difficult questions from the Socialists, as the S&D was pushing hard for the reappointment of outgoing Employment Commissioner Nicolas Schmit. The commitment Hansen's refusal to pass a flagship framework law on sustainable food systems has been a point of focus for questions
The Greek Commissioner-designate for the transport Apostolos Tzitzikostas heard yesterday afternoon had a weak point in the fact that the Greek government has not yet closed the case of the fatal train accident of February 2023 that has caused a political backlash. Tzitzikostas is the governor of Central Macedonia and belongs to the same party as Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. He tried to explain how the Commission will meet the deadline of phasing out sales of new cars with combustion engines by 2035.
