Here we are. The eyes of the world are on US elections. Tuesday 5th November citizens Americans who have not yet voted in advance go to the polls to elect the new president. In a world marked by deep geopolitical crises and characterized by an increasingly fragmented economy, the American vote represents the most anticipated electoral appointment of the year, capable – alone – of deciding the international political-economic balance. The challengers are the current Democratic vice president Kamala Harris and the former Republican president Donald Trump. It is a confrontation between candidates, but above all between two diametrically opposed visions of America that will necessarily be decisive for the future global order. And predicting how it will end is practically impossible, given that Harris and Trump are neck and neck, with a very slight advantage for the latter in the swing states and an equally weak advantage for the former on a national scale. So we are in for long hours of waiting. What we can do in the meantime, however, is try to understand how it works, what to observe more carefully, what are the issues that most influence the victory of one or the other in an increasingly divided and polarized America.
US Elections: Why Voting on Tuesday, November 5
Tuesday November 5, an unusual date to vote. At least for us Europeans, accustomed to going to the polls on weekends and, often, during the hottest season. In the US, however, it works differently. The choice to vote in November dates back to 1845. The reason is easy to say: November was the month after the harvest autumn and fell “just before snow and ice closed roads in many parts of the country.” So it was the most convenient time for everyone. It was also decided at the time that elections should be held the Tuesday following the first Monday of November. Why? Monday was excluded because it would have required many voters to leave home on Sunday, in a horse-drawn carriage, to reach the polls. The weekend was dedicated to rest, Wednesday was instead a market day. Today the date creates many difficulties for Americans who are forced to go to vote on a weekday. This is also why many citizens opt for the early voting, in person or by mail. This year, according to the data, more than two-thirds of voters, approximately 77 million people have already voted before November 5th.
US Elections, What Are We Voting For? There's Also Congress and Referendums on Abortion
Although it is the most anticipated election, November 5 is not just about electing the president of the United States. Voters also go to the polls to choose the new Congress: all 435 members of the House and 33 out of 100 members of the Senate. This is not a secondary vote, since the White House tenant's margins of action will also depend on the composition of Parliament. It should be noted that, despite being held on the same day, the presidential and congressional elections are two separate elections, so voters have the opportunity to choose the president of one party, while simultaneously giving the majority in Congress (or one of the two branches) to another party. Currently, the House is in the hands of the Republicans, while the Senate has a Democratic majority. According to the latest polls, the GOP has an 87% chance of winning the Senate and a 53% chance of maintaining control of the House.
Several local votes are also expected, including the'election of 11 governors, the attorneys general of ten states, mayors and local referendums. Among the latter, those on theabortion two years after the Supreme Court (also majority Republican) overturned the Roe vs Wade ruling that regulated the right to abortion at the federal level. The purpose of these votes is precisely to protect women's reproductive rights. Among the states called to express their opinion are Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota.
US Elections, the Candidates: Harris vs Trump
The Democratic Party aims to reconfirm itself in the White House with KamalaHarris, 60 years old, current vice president of the United States. Harris has been the Democratic candidate since last July 21st, that is, since when, after the strong pressure from her party and numerous supporters and donors, Joe Biden has decided to withdraw from the presidential race. The de profundis on his reconfirmation was sounded by the TV debate against Trump on June 27, from which the current president came out very badly. Before becoming vice president, Harris had been a senator from California and, even before that, attorney general of the same state. In 2020, she challenged Biden during the Democratic Party primaries, before withdrawing and endorsing him. If she wins, she would be the first non-white woman to win the presidency.
Harris runs on ticket with vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota and former member of the House, a former history teacher and National Guard veteran. He is considered a moderate, not surprisingly he was chosen precisely to try to broaden the electoral base and win votes in the Midwest, which were essential for victory.
Donald Trump needs no introduction. Republican, 78 years old, billionaire. This is his third candidacy for the White House. In 2016 he managed to win against Hillary Clinton, four years later he lost to Joe Biden. The New York Court convicted him both in civil proceedings, for fraud related to the Trump Organization, and in criminal proceedings, for payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. He is under investigation for several crimes, both at the federal and state level and is on trial for his involvement in the assault on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. If he were to win, the tycoon would become the oldest president in the history of the United States.
Trump runs alongside vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, considered a “clone” of him. He was chosen to strengthen the appeal of the Republican ticket to those potentially more radical voters who in the past abstained because they did not feel represented by the two major parties.
The key themes
Economy, immigration, abortion, foreign policy and climate change. These are the key issues that will decide the US presidential election. Needless to say, on all of them, the two candidates have very different, if not opposite, approaches and solutions. On theeconomy, for example, Trump promises new tariffs on foreign goods, sweeping tax cuts and a drastic reduction in inflation (already down to 2,4% from its 2022 peak), while Harris is banking on middle-class redemption, with proposals ranging from increased taxes on large corporations and capital gains to deductions and aid for medium-sized businesses and families.
Sull'immigration Trump is betting on radical solutions, such as completing the wall on the border with Mexico (already promised in 2016 and 2020) and the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. Harris instead promotes a reform of immigration laws that offers paths to citizenship for illegal immigrants, even though she has said she is still in favor of strengthening the borders.
Another very divisive topic is abortion, on which Trump has changed his mind many times, only to then declare his desire to give free rein to individual states and tell women "I will protect you whether you want it or not". The current vice president instead wants to win the women's vote precisely through the claim of the right to abortion and reproductive rights and has promised to pursue solutions that lead to the reinstatement of abortion at the federal level.
Also fundamental is the foreign policy. Trump argues that military aid to Ukraine needs to be reduced and has said that, if he becomes president, he will end the war “in 24 hours” (without explaining how). He is considered close to Putin and the mutual sympathy between the two leaders dates back to his presidency. In the Middle East, on the other hand, Trump is a staunch supporter of Israel, but has also criticized some of its actions during the war against Hamas. Harris' foreign policy, on the other hand, is a direct continuation of that pursued by the Biden administration: staunch military support for Ukraine and support for Israel. However, the vice president has repeatedly criticized Netanyahu's actions and has expressed concern about the lack of respect for human rights in Gaza. She also continues to support the two-state solution. In foreign policy, Trump and Harris agree on only one thing: the need to counter Chinese dominance, even if with different methods.
Finally the climate change, back in the spotlight after Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Trump sees the fight against climate change as an obstacle to growth, while Harris has proposed huge investments in renewables and sustainability to combat it.
US Elections, How to Vote? The Grand Electors
The US president is elected by indirect universal suffrage. In each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia (the district dedicated to the capital Washington), citizens do not directly elect the president, but 538 electors, a number equal to the sum of the representatives (435) and senators (100) that make up Congress, to which are added the 3 representatives of the capital Washington. The number of electors available to each state varies based on its size and number of inhabitants. For example, with the last census of 2020, Texas gained two delegates, while California and New York lost one.
What counts, therefore, is not the sum of the votes at a national level, but the number of delegates that the two candidates manage to win. In fact, it has already happened that a candidate received more votes at the national level, but ultimately lost the election: in 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton obtained 3 million more votes than Trump, but it was the latter who went to the White House.
Back to us: Harris and Trump will compete simultaneously in all 50 states (+1) that make up the USA. In each of them (except 2) a system called winner-take-all: that is, whoever gets the most votes at the state level gets all the electors of that state. The only exceptions are Nebraska and Maine which instead use a hybrid mechanism: two electors are elected with the usual method, the others (2 for Maine, 3 for Nebraska) are instead assigned based on who wins in each congressional district of the state. It can therefore happen that some delegates go to one candidate, others to another.
How do you win? There is a number to keep in mind: whoever reaches 270 electors becomes president of 538, a simple majority.
Swing States: This Is Where the Presidency Is Decided
During the presidential election, the United States is divided into Safe State and Swing State: the first are those in which it is easy to predict who will win because traditionally voters always and only lean towards one side and also because one of the two candidates enjoys enough support to be considered the winner already. The Swing State New York, for example, has not elected a Republican president for 40 years, while the Texas, on the contrary, is considered a GOP stronghold.
The elections are therefore decided in the so-called Swing State or States in the balance. These are territories where the vote is uncertain until the last moment and where the candidates invest the vast majority of their time and resources in order to win. These are therefore the states that decide who will be the future president of the United States.
Swing States can vary from election to election: from 1992 to today, 30 states have voted for the candidate of the opposite party, compared to the previous election, at least once. In 2024, there are seven swing states and they represent 93 of the 538 total votes of the Electoral College and about 18% of the population. We are talking about: Arizona (11 electors), Georgia (16 electors), Michigan (15) Nevada (6) North Carolina (16) Pennsylvania (19) Wisconsin (10)
According to expert calculations, Harris would have a good chance of winning the White House if she won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are not coincidentally the states in which she has invested the most. She could also do it if she prevailed in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, but the latter is considered a very unlikely scenario. Trump, on the other hand, would need to win Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, plus one of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Key times and dates
In the US, polls will close around midnight, November 5, Italian time, but the time will change depending on the time zone of the various states.
Once the voting is concluded, the ballots will be counted. The initial results are not official and, in many cases, differ from the final results. Under the Electoral Count Act of 1877, states have five weeks time from Election Day to resolve any disputes related to the election. The 17th December the 538 electors will gather to officially elect the president. Then, the January 6 2025 (date now known after the storming of the Capitol in 2021), the Electoral College votes will be officially counted during a joint session of Congress, and the president of the Senate will announce the results of the election. The winner will take office in the White House on January 20 2025.
What the latest polls say
It will be a head to head no holds barred, which will also mean that we might have to wait a long time to find out the name of the winner.
A national level, almost all polls speak of a Slight advantage for Harris on Trump who has been steadily decreasing since the end of September: for Reuters / Ipsos the vice president would be ahead with 44%, against the tycoon's 43%. For FiveThirtyEight, the gap would be 1,4%, in both cases well within the margin of error.
How are things going in the States in the balance? For New York Times/Siena College, Harris would be ahead in Nevada (+3%), North Carolina (+2%), Wisconsin (+2%) and Georgia (+1%). The two candidates would be tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump would lead in Arizona (+4%).
Various findings from FiveThirtyEight, according to which the Democratic candidate would be ahead by one point in Wisconsin and Michigan. Ties in Pennsylvania and Nevada, while the tycoon would be ahead by one point in North Carolina.
The big surprise? It could be the'Iowa, a Republican state, where according to the NYT Harris would be ahead by 3 percentage points.
