US Election Results: The Times of Truth. Here's When We'll Know Who Will Be President

We may have to wait a long time to find out who will be president, but there will be decisive moments that will provide useful clues as to who will win. Here are the key times, states to watch, and precedents.

We have repeated it several times: to know who will be the next president of the United States of America we could having to wait for days, especially if – as unanimously anticipated by the polls – it will be a head to head where whoever wins will do so by a few thousand votes. It has already happened, many times, and it will happen again. Despite this, during the long election night There will be times ahead when we can understand which way the wind is blowing. Decisive moments which could help us understand in advance which way the balance is tipped, whether towards the first, historic presidency of a black woman, Kamala Harris, or if towards the oldest president in the history of the United States (a description he hates, for obvious reasons), Donald Trump.

US Election Results: The Starting Point

Premise: following the electoral marathon you will see several maps in which the American states will be colored red (republican) and blue (democratic). Don't be fooled by the first glance. In all likelihood, in fact, you will find yourself in front of a wide red expanse. This does not mean, however, that Trump is ahead: traditionally, in fact, the electoral maps of the USA contain many red states, that is, those considered safe (in this case) for Trump. However, these are the least populated states in the USA and therefore with fewer electors. The blue ones, therefore assigned to the Democrats, even if they will be fewer and concentrated mainly on the coasts, have a much larger population and therefore a greater number of electors. Hence the balance.

The goal for Trump and Harris is to reach the magic number, equal to 270 electors which will guarantee them a majority in the Electoral College that will vote for the President (Here is an explanation of how voting works). According to the calculations of the CNN, leaving Harris could count on 226 electoral votes and Trump on 219, and the two candidates would be 44 and 51 electoral votes away from reaching 270 votes.

US Elections: When are the results in?

How long will the wait be? It will depend on the states in the balance: If Harris or Trump win by a sufficient margin in three or four of these territories, the result could come quite soon, around 3 now Italian. If, instead, the swing states were to split between one and the other or in some of them there were to be a race to the last vote (which is likely), then it would go forward to the bitter end.

Which are the swing states? Arizona (11 electors), Georgia (16 electors), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10). The eyes of the world will be focused especially on one of them, Pennsylvania. According to analysts, experts and observers, in fact, This is where the presidency of the United States will be played out, by a handful of preferences.

That said, there is another important piece of information you should know: in 2024, some states have changed their election laws to allow the pre-processing, the mechanism that allows early or mail-in votes to be prepared for counting before the election and thus speed up the counting. Among these is Michigan.

US Election Results: The Hours of Truth

But let's get to the timetables. The long Election night will begin at midnight when the polls close and the first results come in Indiana and Kentucky, and will continue until 6 am on November 6, with the Polls closed in Alaska and Hawaii. The polling stations will in fact close at different times, given that the US is crossed by six different time zones, 8 with Alaska and Hawaii.

To understand which way the wind is blowing, we will need to look above all at the first results of the States in the balance. In the US, in these seven states, polls will close between 7 and 10 pm US time. In Italy between 1 and 4 in the morning.

The first state to provide some interesting information will be the Georgia, with the first results expected to arrive around1am Italian. Half an hour later, at the1.30, it will be the turn of the North Carolina. If Harris were to win these two states, she would have a good chance of winning. If, on the contrary, as the polls indicate, it were Trump who did, we will have to move on with the count.

The first results from the Pennsylvania, the most anticipated of all, and of a large part of the Michigan They will arrive around 2 night, while to 3 it will be up to Wisconsin, Arizona and the rest of Michigan. Finally, to 4, it will be the turn of the Snowfall. If Harris were to win all three of the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), the ones on which she has invested most of her money and time, she would have a good chance of entering the Oval Office. It must be said that, traditionally, these are states where the counting proceeds very slowly: pre-processing could help in Michigan, while in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the ballots will be verified and counted starting on the morning of the presidential election, so the results may arrive very late.

Attention also toIowa: it is a Safe State, that is to say a state that traditionally leans only on one side, the Republican one, but in which according to the latest polls Harris would be ahead. The polls will close at 3 in the morning, Italian time.

US Election Results: How Did It Go In The Past?

The result of 2020 presidential elections, those in which Joe Biden won against Donald Trump, to be clear, arrived only on Saturday, November 7. The elections were held on Tuesday, November 3. This was precisely because Pennsylvania, which was also decisive then, was assigned four days late. Not only that, on the morning of November 4, none of the swing states had yet proclaimed a winner.

It went differently in the presidential elections of 2016, when at 3 a.m. on November 9 (voting was on the 8th), it was understood that Donald Trump would become president having won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, despite his opponent Hillary Clinton having obtained more votes at the national level. It was not the first time, by the way, that a candidate lost despite having won the popular vote. It had already happened in 1828 with John Quincy Adams, in 1876 with Rutherford Haye, in 1888 with Benjamin Harrison and in 2000 with George W. Bush. And speaking of Bush. Twenty-four years ago, the results of the presidential election arrived with more than a month late with respect to the vote. The election was held on November 7. Al Gore won the popular vote, but Bush managed to win 271 electors. The announcement of the winner was delayed for several days, because in Florida, the state that determined the election (this time, as mentioned, it could be Pennsylvania) it was necessary to recount the votes by hand. Bush obtained the majority by a margin of just 537 preferences.

The next steps: from the electors' vote to the inauguration

Under the Electoral Count Act of 1877, states have five weeks time from Election Day to resolve any disputes related to the election. The 17th December the 538 electors will gather to officially elect the president. Then, the January 6 2025 (date now known after the storming of the Capitol in 2021), the Electoral College votes will be officially counted during a joint session of Congress, and the president of the Senate will announce the results of the election. The winner will take office in the White House on January 20 2025.