Positive start for the few open Asian lists: Tokyo advances by an abundant percentage point despite the thud of Sony (-8,9% after the results). Positive Sidney (+0,5%) and Hong Kong (+0,1% just a few minutes before the closing). Indeed, the Stock Exchange will stop for the New Year holidays, in line with the Chinese Stock Exchanges already on holiday to celebrate the arrival of the Year of the Pig, a symbol of prosperity. Only at the end of the Lunar Calendar holidays which will last all week will talks on tariffs with the USA officially resume. The Korean Stock Exchange will also be closed until Wednesday.
This morning's increases can be partly explained by the positive data arrived on Friday from the US on US employment (304 jobs up against the 165 expected) and yesterday by the PMI Caixin services index which partly reduced worries about China. But the strongest push was given by Donald Trump's statements on the progress of the negotiations with Beijing which, he said in a TV interview, “are going very well. I think that when I meet with Xi, we will find an agreement on every point".
GOLD FEVER DOWN, EURO AND OIL STABLE
Tensions subside, gold falls, -0,4% to 1.312 dollars an ounce, after two consecutive weeks of appreciation.
The euro-dollar exchange rate showed little movement: last week the single currency gained 0,4%.
Stable oil: Brent has moved little at 62,7 dollars a barrel, last week it gained 1,8%.
The State of the Union address that President Trump will deliver eight days late tomorrow evening due to the standoff on the Wall with Mexico promises to be the highlight of the week's financial agenda. The markets are awaiting indications on the tariff negotiations but also signals on the course of Trump's economic policy, once the effects of the fiscal stimuli have worn off.
The softer attitude of central banks plays in the president's favor, starting with the Fed: the hypothesis is making headway that for 2019 there will be no more talk of rates. Between today and tomorrow several bankers will be called upon to explain the change of course. It will be President Jerome Powell's turn on Wednesday.
BREXIT EFFECT: NISSAN WILL NOT PRODUCE THE SUV IN THE UK
In the next few days it will be up to the Bank of England to close the first round of meetings of the top management of the monetary authorities: it is almost certain that London will not touch rates before the decisions on Brexit. Meanwhile, bad news related to Brexit has arrived from Japan; Contrary to what has already been promised to Theresa May, Nissan will not produce the new SUV in Sunderland, but in the Rising Sun.
SPREAD VOLTAGE AGAIN, BUSINESS SQUARE IN ALARM
In the meantime, the spotlights are turning on the Italian economy again, both due to the alarm on the deteriorating economic situation and the reaction of the government forces who, regardless of the braking, adapt to the mantra of Prime Minister Conte who speaks of "a beautiful year" by raising meanwhile the level of competition between the government parties. At the Forex meeting, the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco underlined "the uncertainty about growth, as well as the orientation of budgetary policy and the resumption of a credible path to reduce the weight of public debt on the economy ”.
On Friday, in the wake of these signals, the Milan Stock Exchange closed down (-0,8%) unlike the other listings. In the meantime, the spread is rising again: +14 points to 258.
TOMORROW THE ACCOUNTS OF INTESA, THURSDAY IT'S THE TURN OF CNH
In this context, the campaign of the quarterly of Piazza Affari comes to life. We start tomorrow with Banca Intesa and Fineco, Wednesday it will be the turn, among others, of Unicredit and Banco Bpm. The board meetings of Fiat Chryler and CNH will be held on Thursday.
Today, the Stock Exchange agenda also provides for the launch of the voluntary takeover bid on Damiani. The offer also kicks off, aimed at the delisting on Parmalat.
On the macro front, the inflation data is to be followed today. There is expectation for Thursday when the European Commission will publish its quarterly forecasts regarding GDP: after the freezing shower of Istat which certified the recession in our country, it will be Brussels that pronounces on the state of health of the Italian economy and of the Eurozone in general.
An intense week also for the accounts of Corporate America. Quarterly data from Walt Disney, Twitter and General Motors, among others, will be announced.
