In early July, President Trump's long-anticipated tariff war took a major step, with the imposition of 25% tariffs on 818 products imported from China worth $34 billion. China, for its part, reacted by raising tariffs by 25 percentage points on some products imported from the United States, including soybeans and cotton. The measure is not marginal, because soybeans are the main US agricultural product exported to the Asian country which, in turn, is the main importer in the world.
The evolution of the scenario is still uncertain: the current quantifications of the potential effects do not, for the moment, include the problems that the trade war will create for the countries that are part of the production chain that has China as its main hub, above all including South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Japan. Furthermore, the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration are only one of the pieces of a broader strategy which should also include a limit on Chinese investments in the USA (in sharp decline, moreover, since the beginning of the year).
The moves of the two governments on trade are relevant for the weight that the respective countries have on the world economy. The United States and China together account for 39,3% of world GDP (in current dollars), about ten percentage points more than in the early 2001s and four points more than in 4. This growth is due exclusively to the increase in weight of the Chinese economy, which went from 2001% in 15 to 2017% in XNUMX.
China's exports to the United States have grown steadily especially since the 30s - with annual increases of even more than 2003% between 2005 and 2017 - and in 429 amounted to 19 billion dollars (10,6% of export of Chinese goods). China exports manufactured products to the United States, especially telecommunications equipment (9,9%), data processing machines (4,7%) and furniture (2017%). On the other hand, for the United States, China represents the third destination for the export of goods, with a market share of 8,4% in XNUMX.
In recent weeks, American studies have multiplied that highlight the costs, for the United States, of a protectionist trade policy. One of the most debated issues concerns the possibility that the measures in place are sufficient to bring some production back to the United States and to favor employment. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, the measures in force today not only would not produce new jobs, but would put about 45 at risk.
