At the beginning of 2025, the global economic scene already seemed a bit like a rollercoaster: mixed signals everywhere. On the one hand, in the United States and Europe, slowdown it was palpable, while in China timid signs of acceleration were beginning to appear. And then, as if that were not enough, the new tariff policy of the United States, which has added a further layer of uncertainties that are difficult to decipher. This is the picture that emerges from the April brief di Promethea, which explores two alternative scenarios: one focuses on the current situation, after the April 2 tariff suspension, the other includes the new tariffs and trade retaliations that partners are already implementing.
US Tariffs: Blows and Counterblows on the Global Economy
According to Prometeia, the duties introduced on April 2 represent a increase of approximately 14 percentage points than the initially projected average U.S. tariff rate. To make matters worse, the measures retaliation of trading partners: the strongest impact would be felt by the United States, which risk losing global competitiveness as if their export prices increased by 15%. But there is a silver lining: exports represent only 11% of US GDP, so the impact is partially contained.
In detail, according to Prometeia's model, the United States would be the most affected, with a loss of GDP equal to 1,6 percentage points compared to the reference value in two years, and with effects that would also extend into the medium term. China would suffer less damage, with a loss of approximately 1,1 percentage points of GDP, while theEurozone would see a drop of just over half a point. Globally, these measures would lead to a reduction of one percentage point in GDP and a contraction of 2,1% since business world.
10% tariffs and war with China: what are the consequences?
And if the scenario remained unchanged, with a 10% universal duty has always been trade war opened with the China? In this case, the United States would see a much more marked deterioration in GDP, with a drop of as much as 2 percentage points in 2026. But there is a paradox: in the medium term, such high tariffs could drastically reduce imports from China, easing the burden of duties and lowering inflation. China, however, would pay the highest price, with a loss of approximately 2,6 percentage points of GDP, mainly due to the loss of its market share in the United States. TheEurozone, while benefiting from more favorable tariffs, would still suffer the effects of the global slowdown, with a loss of 0,7 points percentages of GDP.
Italy 2025, slow growth and global uncertainties: what awaits us?
And theItaly? Starting from the April 2 scenario, which foresees a reduction in foreign demand for Italian exports and an increase in import prices, Prometeia has built a more complete scenario for our country's economy. The analysis also took into account the decline in business confidence, fluctuations in interest rates and the effects on household wealth. The Italian GDP, which saw a growth of 0,5% in 2024, is expected grow by 0,6% in 2025.
In the short term, euro area interest rates are expected to fall to 1,75% by the summer, giving a boost to an otherwise struggling economy. Inflation will be kept in check, remaining below 2%, while long-term rates are expected to remain low until 2026, when growth will start to pick up. However, theuncertainty remains the real enemy: weaker confidence could reduce disposable income, pushing consumers to be more cautious and decreasing the value of financial wealth. According to this scenario, Italian GDP could fall by about 0,6 percentage points compared to the baseline forecast in 2025 and 1 percentage point in 2026, following the side effects of trade and fiscal measures.
