THEParliamentary Budget Office analyzes the effects of the final version of the budget maneuver for 2024, stating that "the impacts on the balances indicated in the initial version of the maneuver have been substantially confirmed", but "compared to the trends in current legislation, the maneuver the public deficit worsens in the three-year period 2023-25 and improves it in 2026". Not only: families and employees are the main beneficiaries of the measures envisaged by the budget in the three-year period 2024-2026. This is what we read in the new focus of the UPB which provides a synthetic and synoptic picture of the financial and economic impacts of the measures of the budget law analyzed together with the conversion law of Legislative Decree 145/2023 and the legislative decrees relating to the tax reform. The body's technicians analyze the financial effects compared to the scenario with legislation in force in the period 2023-2026, the impact on the recipients and the economic bases, and the main changes introduced during the parliamentary process.
Upb on the budget: the deficit improves slightly, the public deficit worsens
According to the PBO, chaired by Lilia Cavallari (in the picture), the impacts on balances indicated in the initial version of the maneuver are also confirmed in the final version, "having been determined only a slight improvement in the deficit in the three-year period 2024-26, less than 50 million in the first year and 100 million in each of the following two years". Compared to the trends under current legislation, the maneuver worsens the public deficit in the three-year period 2023-25 and improves it in 2026.
As regards the trend picture, with the exception of 2024 which is affected by the effect of the cut in social security contributions paid by employees and the revision of the Irpef, net income increases and net expenditure increases throughout the four-year period. “The reduction of the deficit below 3 percent of GDP programmed in the Nadef for 2026, given the increase established for current expenditure, derives from an increase in net revenues and a reduction in capital expenditure”, he explains the Upb.
Maneuver for the benefit of families
The focus highlights the net impacts on three macro groups year by year: families, businesses and self-employed workers. “In 2024 – writes the UPB – Families benefit most from the measure, in particular those with employees among the members, with net benefits amounting to a total of 16,4 billion, of which 3,4 for public employees alone". But even in the following two years, the main beneficiaries of the maneuver are families (around 6,4 billion and 6,9 billion respectively), in particular public employees.
"The net impact on businesses and self-employment, however, is restrictive, contributing to the improvement of the balance in all years of the three-year period 2024-26 compared to the scenario with current legislation", the focus continues.
In 2024, compared to the trend scenario, following the measure, the revenues that impact on work will be significantly reduced and those on consumption will be reduced to a more limited extent; those on capital instead increase. In the two-year period 2025-26, revenues relating to all economic bases will increase, more markedly on capital.
Spending on defense and healthcare will increase in 2024
On the net expenses side, the largest expenditures concern defense and healthcare and other expenses that are not clearly classifiable for 2024, while in 2025-26 the largest disbursements are aimed at healthcare, non-classifiable expenses, social protection and general public administration services. In contrast, i expense savings are concentrated, in the two-year period 2023-24, mainly in the general services function of the public administrations, while in 2026 significant fewer expenses are arranged for the economic affairs and defense functions.
“Overall, in the parliamentary process the approach of the budget maneuver remained unchanged: the changes made to the budget law had a marginal impact on the balances and the numerous new interventions were of limited extent. Finally, the changes to Legislative Decree 145/2023 are limited and none to the two legislative decrees", concludes the Upb.
