The recession continues, but at two speeds. In 2012, according to the Unioncamere report released on the occasion of the tenth Economy Day, the contraction of GDP will proceed on a double track, that of the Centre-North and that of the South.
According to forecasts, against an average drop in national GDP of 1,5%, the southern regions will suffer the most (-1,8%) with Abruzzo, Molise and Basilicata destined to record a contraction of 2 percent. The plus sign will reappear in 2013 (+0,8% the expected increase in GDP) with a greater acceleration in the North-East (+1,3%) and a decidedly more contained speed in the South (+0,2 %).
In addition to the GDP still significantly decreasing, household consumption is also expected to drop further with a drop of 2,1% and investment spending is expected to fall by 3,8%. According to the 2012 Unioncamere report, "the restrictive policies associated with the consolidation of public finances, on the one hand, and a labor market still in heavy difficulty, on the other, will have significant repercussions on household income and consumption choices".
Household consumption, in particular, should contract by 2,4% in the South, 2,2% in the Centre, 2% in the North-West and 1,8% in the North-East. As foreseeable, according to Unioncamere, in this recessionary context, employee employment will decrease by 1,1%, causing the loss of a further 130 jobs.
