If Christmas only lent a hand to supermarket sales, which almost broke even, the drop in domestic demand hit businesses in all sectors in the last few months of 2012 and makes us think, especially trade and tourism operators, to a first quarter of 2013 “in the red”. Exports are the only indicator which, in the forecasts of manufacturing companies, shows positive signals and ignites hopes of a recovery of the economy even if the benefits of the foreign competitiveness of our products will be mainly reaped by northern companies, with the North West in the lead . This is what emerges from the economic survey carried out by the Centro studi di Unioncamere relating to the fourth quarter of 2012 and the forecasts for the first quarter of 2013.
"The uncertainties of the internal market continue to make themselves felt on our production system", commented the President of Unioncamere, Ferruccio Dardanello. “After having experienced a decidedly subdued Christmas period and having started a sales season that does not seem to have given the desired results, the retail trade is preparing to start a new phase in the name of reducing sales. The context of overall difficulty also seems to affect companies in the tourism sector which, at least in mountain areas, should experience the best performances in recent months".
Forecasts for the first quarter of 2013 and the final balance for the fourth quarter of 2012
Industry: For the first quarter of 2013, industrial companies still show that they are feeling the effects of the unfavorable economic climate, fueled mainly by the uncertainties on the domestic front. Compared to just under half of operators who aim to keep the volumes produced and the flow of sales unchanged, more than a third of the companies continue to expect drops in production and turnover. The balances of these indicators are in fact respectively -17,6 and -16,7. However, the differences between size classes are wide. Firms with fewer than 49 employees and artisans appear decidedly more pessimistic, so much so that balances fall below -25 points in the first case, and to -33 points in the second. From 50 employees upwards, on the other hand, the gap between expectations of improvement and worsening is less accentuated (around -6 points for both indicators). The expectations of operators on the foreign front are improving. In this case, the forecasts are positive (excluding the handicraft sector) by almost 9 percentage points, with a significant difference, however, between the smaller dimensions (which show a balance between expected increases and decreases of only +1,5 points) and larger companies (+12,3).
From a sectoral point of view, the wood and furniture industries are most penalized by the lack of recovery prospects, both in terms of domestic and foreign demand, the only sector to show a negative forecast balance also on foreign orders. On the other hand, the weak internal market has a more decisive impact on the expectations of the food and other industries which, against a prevailing pessimism in terms of production and turnover, show positive balances for foreign orders, thanks to the expectations of companies with over 49 employees. The horizon is less dark for the mechanical, chemical and plastics industries.
Southern companies show more fear than the others for the trend in the first quarter of the year: the production and turnover balances are heavily negative (-25,3 and -23,3 points, respectively) above all due to the difficulties that seem to lie ahead for small businesses. Businesses in the North-East also report marked pessimism for these indicators (around -20%), while the Center and North-West show negative balances but do not go beyond -15%. As for international demand, the North West is the area with the best forecasts (+13,8), followed by the North East (+6,5%), then by the Center (+2,5 the balance). The balance between expected increases and decreases in foreign orders from the Mezzogiorno was only 1,2 percentage points positive.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, while remaining negative, the drops in production and turnover tend to attenuate compared to the previous three months: respectively -5,8% and -5,2% against -6,9 and -6,8% recorded between July and September 2012, but above all, albeit only slightly, the plus sign returns in front of the export indicator (+1,0%).
Trade - Commerce operators continue to suffer from the persistent stagnation of domestic consumption: -37,5 points the balance between expected increases and decreases in sales, with small businesses reporting -45,9. The severity of the climate among retailers is attested by theoutlook decidedly negative expressed by the segment food (-42,1 points the balance), even worse than that of the non-food sector (-38,7). Slightly less gloomy are the expectations of large-scale distribution, where the share of businesses that focus on sales stability rises to 53,4%, but the balance is still negative (-23,4). On a territorial scale, against forecasts better than the national average in the Northern regions (-30,4 and -28,5, respectively, the balances in the North-West and North-East), more marked manifestations of non-performing loans are expected in the Centre-South in sales (-52,0 and -39,3 the balances in the Center and in the South and Islands, respectively).
Sales also down in the fourth quarter of 2012: the final result is -8,4%, with the large-scale distribution which, thanks to the holiday period, closes almost evenly (-0,1%), while the non-food retail trade shows a decline by -10,3% and food by -7,3%.
Lifestyle
The critical nature of the economic scenario is also reflected in the prospects of the companies of the Other services for the first quarter of 2013: the declarations of the operators focus (57,0%) on the stability of the turnover, but a further third of them consider the concrete risk of deterioration. The impetus for pessimism comes above all from companies in the catering and tourism chain (the balance -33,0), particularly sensitive to the drop in consumption. Only for ICT services is the intonation less negative (-6,8 the balance), thanks above all to a cautious optimism expressed by companies with over 50 employees. On a territorial scale, no particularly significant differences are appreciated: the South and Islands and the North-West share the more clear prevalence of negative judgments, while in the North-East and in the Centre, pessimism is slightly more moderate than the Italian average.
THEoutlook not positive just described, behind it is a decidedly negative final business volume for the fourth quarter of 2012 (-6,7%), heavily affected by the results of the smaller operators, which leave behind a loss of almost 9% of turnover. However, the difficulties were transversal to sectors and geographical divisions: only ICT and advanced services contain the decreases, thanks to better results of companies with more than 50 employees; while, on a territorial scale, the regions of the Centre-North were less penalized than the South and Islands.
