A program to relaunch the excellence of Made in Italy, severely tested by the Covid-19 pandemic. This is what Unicredit has thought of, with a virtual roadmap that will involve the whole country, in stages: it is called "The Italian Way" and will serve to reflect with stakeholders and experts on the new economic scenarios envisaged by Covid, and how to organize a quick restart. The cycle includes the following calendar of virtual meetings: Wednesday 17 June we leave from Naples (partner Confindustria Campania) talking about the Italian fashion industry, the next day from Rome we will talk about cinema, on July 9 from Palermo we will talk about Italian Agrifood; on 13 July Verona will address the issue of support for the furniture and design sector, on 14 July Turin will analyze the wine sector, while on 21 July Bologna will discuss instrumental mechanics and sustainability.
Finally, on 23 July from Milan the dynamics of the Pharma & Healthcare sector will be examined. "With the Unicredit The Italian Way series of meetings - commented Remo Taricani and Andrea Casini, CO-CEOS of Unicredit's Commercial Banking Italy - we want to take the opportunity for an in-depth reflection on the strategies for relaunching the Made in Italy sectors of excellence Italy. The objective of the initiative, which adds to those already implemented by Unicredit in recent months to support families and businesses in this emergency phase linked to the Covid-19 pandemic, is to start a moment of discussion for give voice to Italian entrepreneurial excellence and to address the issue of recovery together with them, starting from the specificities of the individual sectors that constitute the excellence of Made in Italy".
During the meetings, Unicredit experts will present focus on the effects of the pandemic on individual sectors and new opportunities to be seized.
The Italian Fashion System
The Unicredit study, presented in the first stage in Naples, highlights how the high foreign vocation of the Italian fashion industry (with exports exceeding 70% of turnover), is confronted today with a particularly delicate scenario. China accounts for 36% of world exports of the sector and therefore, the shutdown of many Chinese factories creates supply problems of raw materials and finished products for the most exposed companies. In detail, the Unicredit survey, based on Cerved data, hypothesizes two scenarios for the Italian fashion chain - the first more conservative ("Soft") and the second more pessimistic ("Hard") - both foresee a sharp drop in 2020 and a recovery in 2021.
If in the "Soft" scenario the turnover at the end of 2020 will come to lose about 1/5 of its value compared to 2019, with a recovery expected starting from 2021 which could be sufficient to make up for the decline expected for the current year, in the "Hard" scenario the drop could be greater and exceed 1/4 of its pre-Covid value, with a significant rebound assumed in 2021. It should also be emphasized that the negative impact of Covid will be substantially homogeneous to the national average for all companies in the various Italian regions and also in those in which the largest number of companies in the fashion sector in Italy are based: Tuscany (22%), followed by Lombardy (16%), Veneto (11%) and Campania (10%).
Both scenarios are characterized by a deterioration in the risk profile of companies in the sector caused by lower revenues, lower profitability and the worsening of the financial structure of companies in the sector. Most affected will be those with higher debt and companies with little geographical diversification. Firms with a high turnover of proposals will also be more vulnerable than those with a lower stock turnover. However, Unicredit's analysis highlights how, from the point of view of income and assets, Fashion companies in the pre-Covid scenario they counted overall a general state of good health. Indeed, in the last five years, financial debts on shareholders' equity have decreased (from 26,7% in 2014 to 19% in 2018), while liquidity on financial debts has increased (from 26,7% in 2014 to 60,5% % of 2018).
